Sep 17, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Is There A Soybean Demand Bubble?

Feb 25, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 25, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are lower on profit taking. Demand for soybeans, domestically and abroad, is providing underlying support to markets at CME.

Allendale’s Monthly Webinar is Thursday evening. We will be covering Planting Weather, Acreage and a Technical Update. Sign up today, it is free! Click here for details.

Cancellation or lack thereof is the major catalyst for support to the soybean complex.

Traders are currently dealing with several smaller issues which are impacting grain prices. The buying by funds, wet weather in Brazil, the USDA Ag Forum’s soybean acreage estimate and the Spring weather outlook. The next big event is the USDA Prospective Planting Report on March 31st.

A ship loader in Brazil’s number 2 soybean port, Rio Grande, is reporting an accident that will likely cause it to be down for 2 weeks.

Transportation and logistics issues continue to hamper grain delivery in Canada. The Ag Minister has met with grain companies and railways to find a solution to their woes.

The Coast guard has reopened the lower Mississippi after Saturday’s collision between a tanker barge and a tow boat that spilled crude oil.

The first day of the Allendale planting survey got us off to a great start in developing a reliable data set. We will be doing the survey until March 7th. Remind your neighbors and friends to fill out the survey. Click on Acreage Survey for more details.

The outside markets are seeing some profit taking this morning as gold and energies are lower.

Cash cattle are expected to trade steady this week. Packers should see an improvement in product as retailers stock coolers for early March featuring. Beef cutout values were higher with choice up 2.07 and select up 1.79. The CME index is 170.57.

After setting new contract highs on Monday, the Lean Hog futures at the CME are relieving some of the overbought condition. Traders are now thinking the PEDv impact could happen as early as April. Tight beef supplies could fuel pork values going into the 2nd quarter. Pork cutout values were up 1.29 on Monday.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    – 3/4
  • Mar Beans   -5 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   -1 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  +.32
  • Apr Hogs    +.05
  • Mar Dlr     -.07
  • Mar S&P     -3.00
  • Apr Crude   -.75
  • Apr Gold    -4.90

Chart of the Day

Daily Chart

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