Sep 21, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

July Contract Expiration Could Provide Fireworks

Jul 12, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 12, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mixed with the old crop/new crop spreads expected to provide some fireworks before the July contract expires at 12 noon. Corn basis has held steady but soybean basis has been on a slide at most processors. NOPA crush data will be released on Monday which should provide a clue to accuracy of USDA’s soybean ending stocks. The USDA numbers released yesterday were as expected on the production side however they lowered demand for new crop corn and soybeans. Traders are now focused on how USDA will adjust 2013/14 ending stocks for prevent planted acres and yield. Our analysis suggests it is very possible to see an increase in corn yield on upcoming reports. Soybean yields could be the opposite due to late planting and excess moisture. We do have a long growing season ahead of us and a reason for trader’s nervousness about the weather. The hot temps forecast for the next few days (especially in the western quadrant) for the cornbelt has traders tense going home for the weekend. The wheat was dealt a bullish figure by USDA as they increased demand by 100 million bushel and raised the average price for wheat by 20 cents. Weekly export sales were strong at 1.47 mmt. Wheat demand is benefiting from the tight supplies of corn in livestock feeding areas. Argentina port workers will strike today for one day as they protest high taxes. USDA lowers 2013 beef & pork production forecasts from last month and leaves 2014 beef unchanged and raises pork production slightly. Chick placement increased as growers anticipate greater corn supplies in a few months. Some feedlots in eastern NE are reporting significant death loss from the heat and humidity they had this week. Cash cattle are still at a stand-off, bid 116-117 offers 122-123 in the south. Boxed beef values are lower with choice down .35 and select down 1.34. Pork cutout values were down 1.61. The July Hog contract will go off the board on Monday.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -2
  • Nov Beans   -2 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   +1 1/2
  • Aug Cattle  -.05
  • Aug Hogs    -.37
  • Sep Dlr     +.20
  • Sep S&P     +.75
  • Aug Crude   -.18
  • Aug Gold    +3.70


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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