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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Last Minute Adjustments Before 11:00 Reports

Jun 30, 2014

 Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 30, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are lower as weather conditions are beneficial for crops.

View our June 30th USDA Report Update.

On my trip from Rockford IL to St. Louis MO this past week I saw some of the best corn and soybean crop along the interstate that I can ever remember seeing. The corn had a dark green color and most of the corn will be tasselling in the next 10 days south of I-88.

Corn fields on my brother-in-law’s farm in southern IL have the possibility of a bumper crop. However we all know that the crop is not made until it is in the bin.

Wheat harvest is progressing rather slowly in southern IL as they have a light shower about every day. Wheat yields vary from 40 to 80 bushel per acre with test weights under 60#.

Grain traders have one thing on their mind and that is, "what will USDA give us on the reports at 11:00 am this morning?"

Reuter’s trade estimate survey for Monday’s USDA Planted Acres Report:

                                                 Corn  Soybean     All   Spring   Durum

                                                                             Wheat    Wheat   Wheat

Average trade estimate          91.725   82.154   55.818   11.860   1.790

Highest trade estimate          92.200   84.000   57.000   12.200   1.900

Lowest trade estimate           91.000   80.500   54.800   10.500   1.694

USDA March estimate             91.691   81.493   55.815   12.009   1.799

USDA 2013 final                 95.365   76.533   56.156   11.596   1.470

Reuter’s survey of Quarterly Stock estimates:

                                                Wheat     Corn   Soybeans

Average trade estimate           0.598    3.722     0.378

Highest trade estimate           0.633    3.950     0.440

Lowest trade estimate            0.560    3.046     0.334

USDA March 1, 2014               1.056    7.006     0.992

USDA June 1, 2013                0.718    2.766     0.435

The quarterly update on the hog herd came in bullish. USDA counted June 1 hog numbers at 4.7% less than last year. That was quite a bit less than the average trade guess of a 2.9% decline. However, the bullish surprise in this report is that hog supplies will not get "back to normal" after this summer.

The December contract may need to gain back some of its losses posted last week. The other issue from a long term perspective is expansion, or the lack thereof. USDA counted the breeding herd at 0.5% less than last year. Analysts had been expecting a 1.8% year over year increase. Pork cutout values on Friday were up 1.18.

Strong cash cattle sales of $154 to $156 were paid last week. The bulk of this rally can certainly be attributed to the lack of slaughter ready cattle being offered. Slaughter last week was 6% lower than last year. Beef values closed out the week on a firm note with choice up .97 and select up .19. CME Feeder Index is 213.37.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn   -3 1/4   
  • Jul Beans  -2 1/2
  • Jul Wheat   -3 3/4
  • Aug Cattle  Steady-Higher    
  • Jul Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Sep Dlr     -.03
  • Sep S&P     -1.00
  • Aug Crude   – .75
  • Aug Gold   -5.80

Chart of the Day

daily chart

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