Last Minute Adjustments Before 11:00 Reports
Jun 30, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 30, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.
Grain futures are lower as weather conditions are beneficial for crops.
View our June 30th USDA Report Update.
On my trip from Rockford IL to St. Louis MO this past week I saw some of the best corn and soybean crop along the interstate that I can ever remember seeing. The corn had a dark green color and most of the corn will be tasselling in the next 10 days south of I-88.
Corn fields on my brother-in-law’s farm in southern IL have the possibility of a bumper crop. However we all know that the crop is not made until it is in the bin.
Wheat harvest is progressing rather slowly in southern IL as they have a light shower about every day. Wheat yields vary from 40 to 80 bushel per acre with test weights under 60#.
Grain traders have one thing on their mind and that is, "what will USDA give us on the reports at 11:00 am this morning?"
Reuter’s trade estimate survey for Monday’s USDA Planted Acres Report:
Corn Soybean All Spring Durum
Wheat Wheat Wheat
Average trade estimate 91.725 82.154 55.818 11.860 1.790
Highest trade estimate 92.200 84.000 57.000 12.200 1.900
Lowest trade estimate 91.000 80.500 54.800 10.500 1.694
USDA March estimate 91.691 81.493 55.815 12.009 1.799
USDA 2013 final 95.365 76.533 56.156 11.596 1.470
Reuter’s survey of Quarterly Stock estimates:
Wheat Corn Soybeans
Average trade estimate 0.598 3.722 0.378
Highest trade estimate 0.633 3.950 0.440
Lowest trade estimate 0.560 3.046 0.334
USDA March 1, 2014 1.056 7.006 0.992
USDA June 1, 2013 0.718 2.766 0.435
The quarterly update on the hog herd came in bullish. USDA counted June 1 hog numbers at 4.7% less than last year. That was quite a bit less than the average trade guess of a 2.9% decline. However, the bullish surprise in this report is that hog supplies will not get "back to normal" after this summer.
The December contract may need to gain back some of its losses posted last week. The other issue from a long term perspective is expansion, or the lack thereof. USDA counted the breeding herd at 0.5% less than last year. Analysts had been expecting a 1.8% year over year increase. Pork cutout values on Friday were up 1.18.
Strong cash cattle sales of $154 to $156 were paid last week. The bulk of this rally can certainly be attributed to the lack of slaughter ready cattle being offered. Slaughter last week was 6% lower than last year. Beef values closed out the week on a firm note with choice up .97 and select up .19. CME Feeder Index is 213.37.
Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT
- Jul Corn -3 1/4
- Jul Beans -2 1/2
- Jul Wheat -3 3/4
- Aug Cattle Steady-Higher
- Jul Hogs Steady-Higher
- Sep Dlr -.03
- Sep S&P -1.00
- Aug Crude – .75
- Aug Gold -5.80
Chart of the Day
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