Late August Rains Needed For Soybeans
Aug 15, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 15, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher due to lack of general rains across the Midwest. Short-covering on concerns of yield loss is providing strength to grains overnight.
Weather is a driver of soybeans as late August rains are very important to yield and overall production. The latest models are a little drier while temps remain on the cool side. Driving around our area in northern Illinois yesterday afternoon on a beautiful, low humidity day the soybeans were showing stress. Corn, on the other hand, looks great.
Export sales data will be out at 7:30. Trade is estimating corn sales to be 200 to 450 tmt, soybeans 900 to 1,100 tmt and wheat 550 to 750 tmt. Old crop sales for corn and soybeans are expected to be minimal.
On Monday’s supply and demand table for soybeans, the USDA raised the crush number which suggests a NOPA number of 116.5 million bushels is needed to hit their target. Trade is estimating the NOPA crush data, which will be released at 11:00 CDT, to be 119 million bushel. By holding old crop ending stocks at 125, the USDA will have to pull some magic out of their hat on the next report.
Futures markets are oversold with technical resistance in Dec corn at 4.69 and support at 4.40. November soybeans would suggest that a close above 12.48 projects the next target of 12.75. This week’s low in November soybeans is considered major support. Seasonal trends suggest markets could work higher into early September.
Allendale’s Annual Yield Survey starts on Monday August 19th and runs through August 30th. We ask that you called us at 800-262-7538 or fill out the survey online. No one knows your fields like you do! Because of your help, Allendale’s surveys have been extremely accurate. The results will be released on September 4th.
Cash cattle trade is inactive through Wednesday. Last week cattle traded at 121 in the south and 123 to 123.50 in the north. With improvement in cutout values you would expect a stronger market this week. Boxed beef was higher with choice up 2.03 and select up 1.40. We expect retailers to be done buying for their Labor Day needs this week. CME Feeder Index is up .69 to 152.01.
October lean hog futures are being supported by the discount to the cash index. We suggest that cash hogs seasonally will have a sharp sell-off after the holiday buying is finished and futures are anticipating this price decline. Pork cutout values were down 1.17 on Wednesday.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
- Dec Corn +3 3/4
- Nov Beans +8 1/2
- Sep Wheat +1 1/2
- Oct Cattle +.07
- Oct Hogs +.15
- Sep Dlr -.22
- Sep S&P -3.00
- Sep Crude +.93
- Oct Gold +4.80
View Today’s Chart of the Day
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