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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Light Volume but USDA Will Change That at 11:00 CST

Feb 08, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for February 8, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grains are surprisingly quiet ahead of the supply and demand report at 11:00 this morning. It seems most of the re-positioning was done yesterday. Corn fell below the January lows yesterday and managed to close below that level as well. This will keep the technical picture looking weak unless we can recover today. The average trade guess for carryout in corn is at 615 million. Last month USDA came in at 602 million. This increase could come from lowering demand for exports and also an adjustment to ethanol numbers. Ethanol is running almost 12% lower for the year and USDA still is expecting only a 10% decline. Beans have been strong over the last week. The March contract still sits near 1500 and seems like it wants to push above. South American weather will still be watched close and could provide support but today will be all about carryout numbers. Trade estimates for beans are lower than January’s number. Last month beans had a carryout of 135 million and expectations are 129 million this morning. South American production will be watched closely for beans and could provide excitement as well. Argentina’s production is expected to drop from 54 million metric tonnes to 53 mmt. Brazil’s production could see an increase from 82.5 mmt to 83.1 mmt. Wheat has been falling this week right along with corn and could see an increase in ending stocks as well. The charts were able to hold support at the 750 level in March yesterday but the trend is still down. The trade is looking for carry out to rise to 728 million from 716 million. Export sales have been strong for wheat but analyst still are looking for a slight increase. We are still expecting to see sloppy trade for cattle. No cash trades as of yet for this week and box beef is seen mixed once again. Choice was down .48 at 183.46 and select was up .48 at 181.13. All eyes will be focused on the grain report at 11:00. Make sure to sign up on line if you will be able to attend any of the Allendale Road Series Meetings.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
  • Mar #Corn    -1 1/4
  • Mar #Beans   +2 1/2
  • Mar #Wheat   +1 3/4 
  • Feb Cattle  unch
  • Feb Hogs    -.10
  • Mar Dlr     -.21
  • Mar S&P     +0.50
  • Mar Crude   +.25
  • Feb Gold    -.05
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538

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