Jul 30, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Livestock Markets Take Spotlight Until 11:00 AM

Sep 30, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 30, 2013 at 5:15 am.  Grain futures are quiet with corn slightly higher, soybeans lower and wheat lower.

Traders are waiting for the release of USDA Quarterly Stocks report later this morning. Trade average estimates are: corn 681 million bushels, soybeans 124 million bushels and wheat 1.913 billion bushels.

On a trip from northern IL to near St Louis, Mo this weekend I thought I would see a lot of harvesting being done. Not the case until I got to southern IL where many producers just started on corn last Friday. Talking to several producers who were harvesting corn reiterated the same thing we were hearing all week. Corn yields are a surprise with most yields 10 to 30 bushels per acre more than what they were expecting. Clinton county IL corn yields were the best they have ever harvested.

The favorable weather over the next 4 to 5 days should allow harvest to get in full swing although producers are concerned about the slow dry down. Movement of newly harvested grain seems to be going into farmer’s bins rather than being marketed. Processors are starting to get anxious about acquiring supplies.

The CFTC report showed managed money funds were net sellers of corn by 22,134 and soybeans by 12,499 contracts. They were a net buyer in wheat of 15,882.

Trade is expecting corn harvest to be 15 to 17% complete on this afternoon’s report. Soybean harvest could be 12 to 14% complete.

The possibility of the government shutdown is causing traders to be cautious about building positions.

The USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is considered being a little disappointing for the bulls. The total hog herd was 100.3% of last year when the trade was expecting a 1.6% decrease. Kept for Marketing, the USDA counted them at 0.3% larger than last year when trade was expecting a 1.9% decrease. The Kept for breeding number at 100% showed pork producers did not increase herd size as much as trade was expecting. The early opening calls are .50 to 1.00 lower for lean hog futures. We would caution that the opening call could get weaker the closer we get to 9:05 as funds are holding a record long position. Pork cutout value was down .30 on Friday.

Cattle futures will likely start lower in sympathy with hogs but may find support from long hog/short cattle spread unwinding and tight market-ready cattle supplies. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .97 and select down .90.

The week ahead will likely have volatility as the markets wait for Congress to make a decision. Stay in touch with Allendale by calling 800-262-7538 or email research@allendale-inc.com with your questions.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Dec Corn    + 1/2
  • Nov Beans   -5 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   -1 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  Called Lower
  • Oct Hogs    Called Lower
  • Dec Dlr     +.02
  • Dec S&P     -13.00
  • Nov Crude   -1.05
  • Dec Gold    -1.60
Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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