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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Major Tropical Storms Headed for U.S. and China

Aug 23, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 23, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower on profit taking. Fund buying has been a major factor this week. Open interest in corn, beans and wheat has jumped which suggests new money with no-fear type buying is stepping into the market. Will they be there to buy as we close out the week? The crop tour will end today and a final tally will be released tomorrow. Today the tour should be getting into some much better corn in southern Minnesota. Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc. has Typhoon Bolaven moving into China’s Dalian port sometime next Thursday. The current path projection has this storm missing all land before getting to China. This is likely to cause the system to carry full force when hitting China’s major ports and corn growing area. In the Atlantic, Hurricane Issac’s path now is projected to bring moisture to the southeastern US and keep the Midwest dry. The Fed minutes from yesterday put some language that opens the door for QE3 talk again. EU leaders are beginning their shuttle diplomacy meetings today. Spain’s bonds rates are continuing to stay under the 7% mark as the ECB buys bonds. Weekly export sales estimates for the 7:30 USDA report are: corn 200 to 350 tmt, soybeans 500 to 650 tmt, meal 125 to 250 tmt, bean oil 10 to 35 tmt and wheat 400 to 550 tmt. September option expiration is Friday. High feed costs are getting credit for the oversupply of pork. The losses pork producers are incurring is causing liquidation at a time where meat demand slows after the Labor Day holiday. Boxed beef was down slightly on Wednesday. Choice was -.09 and select was -.44. Cold storage report numbers released yesterday afternoon were in line with estimates for pork. However the sharp rise in feed cost is leading to liquidation causing pressure on pork prices. Cutout values were down another 2.98 on Wednesday. Go to Allendale Survey and answer the few questions. No one knows your field’s production like you do. You can sign up for the August 28th Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar today.
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    -2 1/4
Nov Beans   -1 1/4
Sep Wheat   +2
Oct Cattle -.20
Oct Hogs    +.27
Sep S&P     +4.00
Sep Dlr     -.11
Oct Crude   +.75
Dec Gold    +24.30
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Allendale Advanced Charts
The down trend is still very healthy in Oct Lean Hogs as we made new contract lows yesterday of $73.15.With zero levels of technical support, the weakness in Oct Hogs should not surprise us by its strength going forward. In order to negate the bearish momentum, we must see a close above the 8/14 $77.77 ½ pivot high…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Tuesday night ProFarmer suggested its crop tour results for Indiana at 113.3 bpa. That would be over USDA’s latest 100 bpa estimate.
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