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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Managed Money Increases Shorts In Corn

Jul 15, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 15, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are lower as buyers wane on weather change. Weather forecasts have put in a little more moisture and less heat as corn begins to pollinate across the cornbelt. Traders are looking ahead to this afternoon’s crop conditions report which many are thinking we could see a 1-2% decline in G/E from last week’s corn of 68% and soybeans of 67%. NOPA crush will be out at 11:00 am this morning. The trade estimate for June is 117 million bushels, which 13% below last year. We need to be running at 19% below last year for the entire quarter to meet the USDA target. USDA will have to recognize this old crop problem at some point. They clearly told the trade on Thursday that they will wait until new crop is established before showing the true old crop problem. The cash market will have to pay up through basis when supply is needed. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money increased their net short positions by nearly 36,000 contracts last week while adding a few net longs to soybeans and wheat. Later this morning we will get a few important economic reports which may impact trader’s bias. Bernanke’s testimony in front of the Senate and House on Wednesday and Thursday will likely be the highlight of the week. Livestock markets are called steady to lower as product demand struggles. Boxed beef was lower on Friday with choice down 1.19 and select down 1.04. Pork cutout bounced by .73. The July contract of Lean Hogs will go off the board today which could provide support for the August contract due to its sharp discount. Subscribe to the Allendale Advisory Report the full details.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec #Corn    -7 1/2
  • Nov #Beans   -4
  • Sep #Wheat   -11
  • Aug #Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Aug #Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Sep Dlr     +.22
  • Sep S&P     +1.75
  • Aug Crude   -.54
  • Aug Gold    +3.40

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

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