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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Markets Finding Pressure Before the Supply and Demand Numbers at 11:00 cst

Mar 10, 2014

Markets finding pressure before the Supply and Demand numbers at 11:00 cst

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for March 10, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

View today’s weather outlook from Allendale’s in house Meteorologist, Ryan Martin.

After seeing corn start higher Friday and end toward the lower end of the range, we are seeing more profit taking ahead of the USDA report this morning. May corn had almost a 40 cent range last week and most was to the upside. December had a range of 22 cents but closed 12 cents higher on the week. This strong rally has put most producers profitable again and could see hedge pressure from sales being made at these levels. The market is expecting to see a very slight increase in ending stocks for corn but more eyes will be on beans.

The expectation is to see a 9 million bushel drop in ending stocks due to strong export demand. It seems everyone has been expecting to see more sales canceled from China but we just haven’t up to this point. South America will still be looking at a big crop even if we see their production number slip. They are still having port problems and that makes our beans more desirable. We need to keep a watchful eye for more cancellations this week but USDA may have to make some changes to the balance sheet if we don’t see these soon.

Wheat was strong Friday and could have a good chance to find strength again as tensions continue to build between Ukraine and Russia. This situation doesn’t seem like we are seeing any progress and this could have the funds come out of more short positions. We are not saying that the funds will go long but they could buy back short positions and that could be enough for more of a bounce. This report may not have a big impact on wheat so traders could focus on this situation as something to trade. 

Cattle finished higher on Friday but still finished the week almost 3.50 lower. Cash cattle traded $2 lower but box beef continued to climb. Choice finished the week .44 higher with select falling .13. We could see more pressure this week if cash markets continue to weaken.

Hogs were strong all week as fund money continues to pour into the summer months. Wholesale pork prices finished higher once again continuing the impressive streak it has been on. Cutouts were up $1.85 putting them at 111.99. This rally should find good support on pullbacks until we get some news to change this trend. 

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • May Corn    -9 3/4
  • May Beans   -7 1/2
  • May Wheat   -8 1/2  
  • Apr Cattle  Steady 
  • Apr Hogs    Steady to lower
  • Mar Dlr     +.02
  • Mar S&P     -1
  • Apr Crude   -1.33
  • Apr Gold    -3.00

Chart of the Day

Daily Chart

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