Apr 16, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Markets Getting Ready for Next Monday’s Report

Feb 03, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 3, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Looking ahead for this week, traders will be getting positioned for next Monday’s February USDA Supply and Demand report. Of course the focus will be on the export number in soybeans and just how tight USDA will make the soybean ending stocks for 2014. The House of Representatives discussion of the debt ceiling will heat up this week in Washington. The new Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will be officially sworn in today. Several Fed officials will be giving speeches this week.

The March contract of corn was down 4 ½ cents last week while the weekly export number was a positive surprise. Ukraine and Argentina have economic issues which allow buyers to go to US for corn needs.

Soybeans were down only 2 cents for the week. Traders are struggling with the US exports which are running 105% of USDA’s balance sheet forecast and the good rains for the soybean growing area in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean prices continue to slide at Brazil ports.

Wheat exports were good but warmer temps in the US growing areas with possible snow cover before next the cold snap continues to weigh on prices. March wheat was down 11 ¾ for the week.

Managed funds last week reduced short positions in corn by 7,208 contracts. They reduced long positions in soybeans by 5,530 contracts. Their short positions in wheat were increased by 5,930 contracts.

All Cattle and Calves, were counted at 87.730 million head, 1.8% smaller than last year. That is the smallest herd since 1951. Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist says, "This is not a surprise. Keep in mind the herd size in no way means we have the smallest beef production since 1951. This year’s production will be the smallest since 1993." Beef cutout values were sharply lower on Friday. Choice was down 7.26 and select was down 4.94. The CME feeder Index is 171.12.

A Russian official indicated they will restart US imports of turkey. He suggested they "may" also restart imports of US pork that has been banned since early last year. Pork cutout values were down 2.19.

Thanks for all of the positive comments about the Allendale AgLeader’s Conference. We enjoyed the preparation and the chance to share our vision for 2014. Those who did not have a chance to attend the live presentation can purchase the recorded version today.

Anyone in the Wisconsin Dells area on Wednesday evening is invited to an LG Seeds meeting where is will be presenting some of the highlights from this year’s AgLeader’s conference. Reservations are required, see information at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    +1 1/2
  • Mar Beans   -3 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   – 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Feb Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Mar Dlr     -.15
  • Mar S&P     -4.00
  • Mar Crude   -.30
  • Feb Gold    +7.50

Chart of the Day

Beans

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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