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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

New Bullish News Needed To Drive Fund Buying

Jun 13, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 13, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grains futures are mostly lower. Some weather models are now forecasting less rain in the 6 to 10 day period. Funds are looking for a new catalyst to provide incentive for them to reestablish long positions. The USDA did not change many numbers on yesterday’s supply and demand report. The 2012/2013 crush number was increased by 25 million bushels. They increased soybean imports by 5 million bushels and lowered exports by 20 million while keeping ending stocks the same as last month at 125 million bushels. The USDA made no change in 2013/14 soybean acreage and yield which was in line with Allendale’s research. Corn acreage was kept the same as the March 31st intentions report but the USDA lowered yield to 156.5 from 158 bushels per acre. Trader focus now switches to the Planted Acreage report for corn and soybeans on June 28. We will also get quarterly stocks report on the same day. The USDA raised wheat production mostly in the HRW but lowered ending stocks due to an increase in wheat exports. Argentine farmers go on strike Saturday through Wednesday but the event is not expected to effect crush and export. The Dec corn and July Minneapolis wheat closed below the 50 day moving average on Wednesday. At 7:30, USDA will release the weekly export sales data. The following estimates (thousand metric tonnes) have been collected by Reuters. 

                               2012/13                       2013/14        
                              Estimates                    Estimates                   
Wheat                      zero                      400,000-600,000   
Corn             100,000-200,000              150,000-250,000
Soybeans                 zero                      450,000-600,000    
Soymeal         75,000-150,000                50,000-150,000     
Soyoil             10,000-20,000                          zero  

There have been no cattle deliveries against the June futures contract with oldest date August 3, 2012. Packer’s bids are developing in the south at 120. Packer margins are in the black which could provide underlying support. Boxed beef values were mixed with choice down 1.20 and select up .15. The feeder cattle index is 135.83, down .05. Pork futures continue to set new contract highs as packers are aggressive buyers of cash hogs. Retailers are buying ahead for the July 4th holiday. Pork cutout values were up 1.96. Today’s economic reports include the jobless report, business inventories, and retail sales. Make sure you get in on the special pricing for the Allendale Advisory Report before it ends on Friday. Subscribe today!

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Jul Corn    +1 3/4
  • Jul Beans   -6 1/4
  • Jul Wheat   – 1/4
  • Aug Cattle  +.37
  • Jul Hogs    +.30
  • Sep Dlr     -.17
  • Sep S&P     -7.00
  • Jul Crude   -.29
  • Aug Gold    -7.00

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

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