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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Now We Wait Until 11 O’clock

Jun 28, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 28, 2013  at 5:00 am.  The nearby grain futures are slightly higher with deferred contracts near unchanged. Not much to say about the markets this morning, other than traders are making final adjustments ahead of the many reports which will be released later today. A few observations based on technical picture: the July corn contract is currently near the upper level of the trading range and December corn is trading near the lower side of the recent sideways trading range. The July wheat closed yesterday below the April 1 support level only to rebound overnight. The July soybeans are trading near recent highs and the November is currently 60 cents off the recent highs. Use the technical picture to get an insight on what traders may be thinking about the outcome of the reports.

Trade estimates for June USDA acreage report – RTRS

                             Corn   Soybean   All Wheat   Spring Wheat    Durum     
Average trade estimate      95.313   77.933    55.902        12.132       1.699
USDA 2012 final             97.155   77.198    55.736        12.289       2.123


Trade estimates for USDA’s US quarterly grain stocks – RTRS

                             Wheat      Corn      Soybeans
Average trade estimate       0.745      2.845      0.442
USDA June 1 2012             0.743      3.148      0.667


Analysts estimates for USDA hogs/pigs report – RTRS

                            Ranges        Average    
All hogs June 1          100.0-101.2        100.5     
Kept for breeding         99.6-100.3        100.0      
Kept for market          100.0-101.3        100.6     
  Weight Groups
   Under 50 lbs.          99.2-101.4        100.5
   50-119 lbs.           100.0-101.6        100.5
   120-179 lbs.          100.4-101.7        100.8
   Over 180 lbs.         100.2-101.0        100.5


Boxed beef values were higher yesterday with choice up .87 and select was up 1.11. Futures markets are lower this morning after funds push prices through moving average resistance on Thursday. Cash cattle trade is at a standoff with packer’s bids developing at 117 in the south. Pork prices posted new highs yesterday. It is expected retailers should be finished with their July 4th Holiday purchases. Pork cutout values were down 1.68 on Thursday. Expect some profit taking ahead of the Hog and Pigs Report this afternoon. Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc. Chief Strategist will be providing a USDA Acreage and Stocks Report commentary around 12:00 via YouTube. The Livestock Commentary will have the breakdown of the Hog and Pigs Report.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Jul #Corn    +2 3/4
  • Jul #Beans   +1 1/4
  • Jul #Wheat   +2 3/4
  • Aug #Cattle  -.10
  • Jul #Hogs    +.02
  • Sep Dlr     +.06
  • Sep S&P     +5.50
  • Aug Crude   +.48
  • Aug Gold    -7.60


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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