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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Old Crop New Crop Spreads Dominate Trade

Jul 25, 2013


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 25, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn and wheat higher, soybeans lower. Outside markets are providing a risk-off attitude this morning. Liquidation of bull spreads have been the major focus in the corn and soybean complex this week. Now that a successful pollination period is nearing completion, end-users have pulled back their enthusiasm to pay up for old crop corn and soybeans. Bean and meal basis has taken a huge hit the last few days and some processors have moved their bids to the November contract. A processor in IA dropped their bean basis by 1.20 yesterday in soybeans. Corn basis took a hit yesterday although not due to movement of grain. It is assumed harvest will begin in a few weeks in the south and some of that grain could be railed north. US corn export business continues to be passed by. This week a few of the good customers of the U.S. went to South America instead and bought corn for December delivery. What will it take to get our exports back on tract? We will need more than China as a buyer. Wheat tour results will be out this afternoon. Details will be available in the Allendale Advisory Report. Export sales data will be released this morning at 7:30, view charts after 8:00 AM. Trade estimates are:

2012/13 2013/14

Corn 100,000 – 200,000 600,000 – 800,000

Soybeans 0 – 100,000 400,000 – 550,000

Soymeal 50,000 – 100,000 50,000 – 100,000

Soyoil 0 – 20,000 0

Wheat ********* 400,000 – 600,000

A few packers came out looking for cattle and paid $119 in Kansas yesterday. However packer interest has been very light and product values have been on a season downhill slide. Yesterday could be a change in the direction of boxed beef prices as choice was up .55 and select up.72. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down .05 to 145.79. Pork cutout values continue the slide being down 1.34 on Wednesday. Cash hog prices are getting some push back by packers as margins have moved into the red. Tight hog supplies should be waning as cooler weather will help gains and numbers should be increasing as we move into the 4th quarter. Take a tour of the Allendale’s home page on the web. We have made some changes to better suit your needs.


Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn +1 1/4
  • Nov Beans -9 3/4
  • Sep Wheat + 1/2
  • Aug Cattle -.02
  • Aug Hogs -.17
  • Sep Dlr +.04
  • Sep S&P -12.00
  • Sep Crude -.86
  • Aug Gold -7.80


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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