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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Old Crop New Crop Spreads See More Liquidation

Apr 01, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 1, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grains futures are lower in reaction to last week’s USDA reports. The USDA surprised the trade on Thursday with the 5.4 billion bushel corn quarterly stocks when the average estimate was 5.03 billion bushel. If you added the extra 400 million bushel to the last USDA Ending Stocks report it would suggest a 1 billion bushel carryover for 2012/13. We do not believe that is an accurate assumption but Rich Nelson will be updating our projection today. You will get all the details in the Allendale Strategy Session. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that funds continued to build their long positions in corn and soybeans ahead of the report as net longs grew by 47,000 and 17,000, respectively. Weather forecasts have taken a negative twist as temps warm up much quicker than early thought. Argentina should receive additional moisture this week. The USDA will be giving us crop conditions for wheat this afternoon. Fieldwork is already beginning in West Central Indiana over the weekend. We thought once the Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks reports were released, the trade would be changing focus to weather conditions for corn planting in the Midwest. However the technical damage done to the chart picture could lead to more liquidation unless a quick turnaround occurs in old crop futures. Liquidation of old crop/new crop corn could support the Dec corn for a few sessions. Livestock futures were supported on Friday by prospects of cheaper feed values. Boxed beef values did not provide any support on Friday as choice was down .02 and select was down .46. We could see some improvement this week as first of month featuring, a warmer weekend ahead and post-holiday retail counter restocking provides support. Pork values were up .15 on Friday. We would have to call the livestock markets firmer for opening. Subscribe today to the Allendale Advisory Report.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May #Corn    -39 1/2
  • May #Beans   -13 1/2
  • May #Wheat   -10
  • Apr #Cattle  Stdy-Hghr
  • Apr #Hogs    Stdy-Hghr
  • Jun Dlr     -.09
  • Jun S&P     -2.75
  • May Crude   -.53
  • Jun Gold    +4.20


Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538

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