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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Planting Weather Market Nears End

Jun 06, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 6, 2013 at 5:05 am.  Grains futures are lower. Spreading remains the dominant volume in the grain complex as rumors fuel the July contracts. New crop is influenced by weather forecasts and planting progress.  Traders are trying to figure out if rain is bullish or bearish. We are hearing a lot of "rain makes grain" talk with the possibility of 95% of corn being planted by Sunday. Soybeans traders are taking profits from last week’s sharp rally and drier forecasts. Corn basis in central IL was down 10 cents yesterday afternoon while soybean processors in Indiana raised bids. The demand for meal has traders expecting soybean stocks to shrink to unprecedented levels. Meal exports sales will be watched closely on the report later this morning. US soybean crush continues to run at a pace well above USDA forecasts. Ethanol production released yesterday was 2% below same week a year ago however for the year we are running 9.8% below last year. The USDA is forecasting an 8.2% year over year decline. USDA Crop Production and Supply & Demand reports will be released next Wednesday.  Two large index funds are expected to be rolling out of the July contract starting on Friday for a total of 5 sessions. Weekly Export sales report will be released at 7:30 this morning.

Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain/soy export sales – RTRS

                            2012/13                          2013/14          
                           Estimates                      Estimates                        
Wheat                   zero                      400,000-600,000    
Corn            100,000-200,000       500,000-700,000
Soybeans              zero                      350,000-600,000     
Soymeal        50,000-150,000                 zero-50,000                                 
Soyoil              25,000-45,000                      zero         

Weakness in the Equities has livestock bulls a bit nervous. The Unemployment data due to be released Friday morning is likely to have an impact on livestock futures. Cash bids are developing in the 121 to 122 area while feedlots are looking for 124 to 125. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down .89 and select up .47 on Wednesday. The feeder index was up .08 to 132.95. Pork cutout values were down .54. We ask that website visitors take the time to answer the question below and hit submit. The results of the survey will be releases in tomorrow morning’s Wake-up-Call.


Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • Jul #Corn    -4
  • Jul #Beans   -8
  • Jul #Wheat   -2
  • Aug #Cattle  +.20    
  • Jul #Hogs    +.62
  • Sep Dlr     -.16
  • Sep S&P     +5.75
  • Jul Crude   +.49
  • Aug Gold    +2.00


View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

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