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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Profit Taking Pressures Grains

Sep 17, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 17, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are sharply lower. The weak technical close in corn has traders unsettled about the long side of the grain market. Weather will give producers a great opportunity to harvest corn and beans over the next 10 to 15 days. This will likely fill some of the end-user’s immediate needs. Basis in the interior and at the gulf slipped last week. The forecast calls for rain in northern Brazil and the wheat growing areas of Australia. The southern plains in the US are still dry with scattered showers in the forecast. Managed Money Funds liquidated long position in grains last week. We will be watching the daily USDA sales announcement at 8:00 for a confirmation of Chinese bean purchases. The rumor last week was that China bought 2 to 5 cargos of soybeans. Buenos Aires Exchange projects the Argentine corn crop at a record 25 to 26 mmt. The news of QE3 from Fed is now old news and proof of it working will be the focus in the weeks ahead. Boxed beef was higher on Friday with choice up .14 and select up .73. Pork cutout values were up .47 on Friday. Livestock futures are called steady but will be influenced from equity markets at the 9:05 open.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -10 3/4
Nov Beans   -27
Dec Wheat   -11 3/4
Oct Cattle steady-lower
Oct Hogs    steady-lower
Sep Dlr     +.06
Sep S+P     -3.00
Oct Crude   -.13
Dec Gold    -.01
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn is attempting a recovery from its major momentum failure below $7.76. The recovery attempt should be viewed as corrective in nature and an opportunity to sell at higher prices until we see a close  above the 8/30 short term pivot high of $8.17 ½ .
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
NOPA, the National Oilseed Processing Association, estimated August soybean crush at 124.773 million bushels. This was under the trade’s estimate of 128.3 million bushels. The number is 5% over last year’s August of 118.767 million bushels. Today’s number, though strong, is disappointing. Wrapping up the old crop marketing year, crush may be 5 to 10 bushels under USDA’s estimate.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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