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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Quality Is Now A Concern For Wheat Producers

Jun 19, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 19, 2014at 4:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are higher on short covering ahead of the Weekly Export Report. Quality concerns in southern plains wheat are also providing support.

This morning’s release of NOAA’s long range forecast will be watched closely for any indication of change in weather pattern.

A record ethanol production was posted last week at 972,000 barrels per day. Ethanol producers are taking advantage of the profitability and produced 11% over last year during the same week. This is a jump from the previous week’s production of 5% to 8% larger than last year. We have to assume USDA’s whole-year estimate of 5.050 billion bushels of corn use will be exceeded.

The trade will be waiting for the weekly export sales data which will be released at 7:30. The results of this report could have an impact on the July/November soybean spread which has been extremely volatile in recent days.

         Trade estimates for        Trade estimates for
            2013-14                       2014-15:
Wheat          0                      350,000-500,000
Corn      300,000-500,000             50,000-150,000
Soybeans (-100,000)-100,000          350,000-550,000
Soymeal     0-100,000                    0-150,000
Soyoil      0-25,000                     0-10,000

A University of Illinois plant pathologist is reporting that head scab of wheat (Fusarium head blight) is now showing up in portions of southern Illinois.

(Reuters) – The Brazilian government plans to reduce to zero the 10 percent import tariff applied to non-mercosur wheat for a quota of up to 1 million tonnes through August 15, a source in the government with knowledge of the plan said on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve officials nudged up their projections for short-term interest rates in 2015 and 2016 but slightly reduced their outlook for interest rates in the longer run.

Cash cattle traded in NE at 148 which would be 1.00 to 2.00 lower than last week. Beef demand remains strong on higher product with choice up 2.74 and select up 2.78. Retailers need product to feature for the July 4th holiday even at these higher prices. Trade is concerned about post-holiday demand as we move into the proverbial "dog days of summer" where demand for high priced cuts slows. Feeder cattle futures rebound after Wednesday’s limit down. The CME Feeder Index is 203.70. June Cattle-on-Feed Report will be released on Friday.

Lean hog futures are not for the "faint of heart" with sharp moves in both directions. Talk of a vaccine approval for PEDv cause long liquidation in the deferred hog contracts. Support from technical buyers and bargain hunters arrived overnight. Technical trend still is up led by nearby contracts. Pork cutout values are up 2.21.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn   +2       
  • Jul Beans   +5
  • Jul Wheat   +5 1/4
  • Aug Cattle  +.92
  • Jul Hogs    +1.67
  • Sep Dlr     -.40
  • Sep S&P     +.25
  • Jul Crude   +.31
  • Aug Gold   +10.00

Chart of the Day

daily chart

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