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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Quiet Grain Trade Overnight

Apr 20, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 20, 2012 at 4.45 am. Corn and soybeans futures are higher, wheat is lower. Today will be the real test for grain futures. Can they hold onto Thursday’s rally? Any news of corn sales made to China would be a positive catalyst. If you remember, we had a bout of optimism a few weeks ago where traders were expecting a large sale of corn to China. Weekly export sales report proved otherwise. We will be watching for USDA to announce new sales at 8:00 am this morning, which could be a key market mover. Weather is still dry in the southeast but rain across the Corn Belt has made for some excellent planting conditions in IL and IN. The outside markets have not been a factor in the last few days but we think it has influenced some funds to reduce their positions in commodities. Keep an eye on the CFTC commitment of traders report this afternoon. Cash cattle traded steady to firm this week. Boxed beef value posted another day of higher prices. Choice was up 1.32 and select was up .87. Pork cutout was up .93 on Thursday. Futures need a strong weekly close to give us some indication that we have made a seasonal low. Today is the last day we are offering the Allendale Research Center for only $99.00 for 6 months.
Markets as of 4:45AM
May Corn    +1 3/4
May Beans   +2 1/4
May Wheat   -2 3/4
Apr Cattle +.70
Jun Hogs    -.05
Jun S&P     +2.75
Jun $ Ind   -.15
May Crude   +.35
June Gold   +1.00
Allendale Advanced Charts
Corn rebounded on Thursday and closed above the previous day high. This was a key close for bulls as they are flirting with key support at 5.91. A follow through strong close is needed to keep momentum going.

Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Sales: Another big disappointment in export sales for corn in both old crop and new crop (which was a net negative number). Sales were down 69% vs. last week. For the marketing year, corn is in danger of falling behind USDA’s annual target, though we will note, sales could continue to come in below the five-year average by about 8% and still meet USDA hopes.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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