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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Quiet Grains Overnight

Dec 04, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 4, 2012 at 4:40 am. Grain futures are slightly higher in very quiet trade. Farmers in Argentina are preparing for another round of heavy rains. Today through Thursday the main corn production area is expected to receive from 1 to 3 inches of rain on already soaked soils. The hard red wheat areas of the US are expected to remain dry with mild temps into next week. Weakness in the US dollar is providing support for US commodities however the movement of grain to the gulf is limiting the ability to make sales. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is expecting to begin removal of rock out of the shipping lanes in the Mississippi as early as January. The price of US corn currently compared to South America is carrying a $30 premium. Chart pictures suggest a further correction in the works for corn and wheat with yesterday’s late session sell-off. Watch the 7.40 area in nearby corn. Livestock futures sold off yesterday after notching new highs for the move in lean hogs. This pattern will likely bring further long liquidation. Seasonally hogs trend lower into January from first week in December. Boxed beef values were higher on Monday with choice up .29 and select up .39. Pork cutout was up .98. Stay tuned to Allendale Advisory Report to get the full story. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
Markets as of 4:40 AM
Dec Corn    +1 1/2
Jan Beans   +1 3/4
Dec Wheat   + 1/4
Dec Cattle -.10
Dec Hogs    +.05
Dec Dlr     -.12
Dec S+P     +1.25
Jan Crude   -.01
Dec Gold    -14.20
Allendale Advanced Charts
The Feb Lean Hogs break today came within 20 cents of confirming the market top. Another clue that we should be looking at is that while the Feb Hogs were making new highs, the 9 period RSI indicators did not confirm a short term divergence in momentum. A momentum divergence is a significant clue in determining market direction…Frank La Placa
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The US dollar index has broken to new lows for its current downtrend. Traders are feeling more comfortable owning euros as Germany indicated it was more open to Greece debt write downs. There are growing concerns that US Fiscal Cliff negotiations will not go well. 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
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