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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Quiet Markets as Holiday Approaches

Dec 14, 2011


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 14, 2011 at 5:00 am. Today we are reporting from Omaha, NE where it is cold and rainy. Grain markets overnight are very quiet with narrow ranges. The December corn, wheat, soy meal and soy oil contracts go off the board today. EU financial situation is still on center stage which likely will make the market even choppier going into holiday markets at yearend. The battle in the US Congress continues over the jobs bill and appears to be going down to the deadline again. This is creating a confidence issue with investors. Weather conditions are getting attention as the forecast for no rain in Brazil and Argentina until next week has traders buying futures. There have been a few Brazilian firms reducing the bean crop size already because of dry conditions. Our weatherman is looking for reduced moisture until mid-next week with relatively cool temps. Good coverage is in the forecast for the Dec 21-23 period for crop areas. Demand is being watch closely for what price will demand come back to grain markets. Weekly exports report will be released tomorrow morning. Cash cattle trade is at a standstill with packers hoping to buy cattle 2.00 lower this week. Cutout values were mixed in yesterday’s trade. Product could see some fill-in buying ahead of the holiday week. Pork product was up .66 on Friday. This is the time to get signed up for Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 20 and 21, 2012. It makes a GREAT Christmas gift. Looking forward to seeing many of you at the AgriGold Meeting in Lincoln NE this evening.
Markets as of 5:00AM
Corn: 1 to 2 higher               Beans: 1 to 2 lower              Wheat: 1 to 2 higher
Live Cattle: 10 to 20 lower                          Lean Hogs: 20 to 40 lower
Dollar: .11 higher                  Crude: .70 lower                   Gold: 28.90 lower
Allendale Advanced Charts
March corn has fallen into a sideways pattern as we approach the holidays. Support is buiding above the neckline of the head and shoulders formation. See trade recommendations.


Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The analysis firm out of the EU, Oil World, is now calling for stepped up levels of US soybean exports. They suggest many buyers had been holding off from purchases as the grain market turned bearish. However, the change in market sentiment for South American production could cause them to turn back to procurement of US supplies. Oil World forecasts Brazilian soybean production at 72.8 million tonnes. That is in the range of the Brazilian government and analysis firm, AgRural. Those two numbers were 71.29 and 73.1 mt. We must point out this is now three groups that are below USDA’s current 75 mt expectation. The group’s expectation for Argentina, at 52 million tonnes, is equal with USDA.



Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.



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