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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Quiet Session In Grain Overnight

Jun 27, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 27, 2013  at 5:00 am. Grains futures are mostly higher in a relatively quiet overnight session. We would expect activity to pick up today during the last full trading session before Friday’s reports. Those who were not able to listen to the June Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar  it is now available on line for your viewing convenience. It is worth your time to listen to the discussion. Traders continue to adjust positions by bull spreading corn and soybeans. Traders are aware that 4 out of the last 5 years December corn futures was limit down 3 times and limit up 1 time after Friday’s report. We have weekly export sales report at 7:30 this morning. Trade average estimates as surveyed by Reuters are:

                 2012/13                2013/14             
                Estimates             Estimates
Corn         100,000-200,000       150,000-250,000
Soybeans        zero-100,000       250,000-450,000  
Soymeal       50,000-100,000          zero-75,000   
Soyoil          zero-10,000             zero            
Wheat            *********         350,000-550,000  
 

Friday is first notice day for CME grain contracts. Corn and Soybean cash premiums are suggesting very few if any deliveries. Traders are concerned there could be wheat deliveries, especially in the KC HRW contracts where low quality wheat could be delivered.  Technically wheat futures closed below a long period of consolidative support. A close below the April 1st low could open the flood gates to the downside. Livestock traders have an important report on Friday in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report. Trade estimates are:

                         Ranges     Average     Mln head
All hogs June 1        100.0-101.2   100.5      66.992
Kept for breeding       99.6-100.3   100.0       5.862
Kept for market        100.0-101.3   100.6      61.162
 

Mexico has halted live hog imports which were only 26,793 last year. Not a major amount when supplies of market ready hogs in the US are tight. Pork cutout values were up 1.45 to 111.33. Speculative buying has been the supportive factor in the cattle complex. There has been no trade in cash cattle this week. Boxed beef was lower with choice down 1.06 and select was up .59. Reports of strong feeder in Oklahoma City supported feeder futures. The CME Feeder Index is 137.26. Look for more pre-report adjusting as we go into Friday "Report Day". Call your Allendale representative to discuss strategy at 800-262-7538.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Jul Corn    + 3/4
  • Jul Beans   +4 3/4
  • Jul Wheat   +5
  • Aug Cattle  +.52
  • Jul Hogs    +.57
  • Sep Dlr     -.02
  • Sep S&P     +3.25
  • Aug Crude   +.25
  • Aug Gold    -.70

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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