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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Quiet Trade Ahead of Export Data

Jan 25, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 25, 2013 at 5:20 am. Grain futures are slightly lower in a quiet overnight session. South American weather is keeping traders nervous as Argentina temps rise and rain is sparse. Forecasts for .1 to .5 inches next week will be welcome but may not be enough to stop crop production loss. As weather models vary on rainfall, markets continue to be choppy. Traders are very concerned about demand as weekly export sales will be released this morning. The ethanol data yesterday was better than last week but not good enough to reach USDA’s corn usage target. The production number was 15% below last year. Ethanol imports jump by 40,000 gallons per day from the previous week. Estimates for the weekly sales export report are: corn 200 to 450 tmt, soybeans 750 to 950 tmt, soymeal 200 to 300 tmt, soyoil 10 to 30 tmt and wheat 350 to 550 tmt. Farmer selling of corn is nil as barge freight on the Mississippi River has fallen to levels not seen since August. The lack of demand for empty barges is cited for lower rates. Funds bought 5,000 corn contracts, sold 2,000 wheat and were estimated as even on soybeans. Allendale's Ag Leaders Conference starts at 12:00 noon today. I hope to provide some of the highlights Monday morning. Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon. Trade estimates are for On-Feed 95.6% of a year ago, Placements at 104.1% and Dec Marketing’s at 93.2% of last year. Cash cattle traded at 123 in NE which was 1.00 higher than earlier in the week. Boxed beef values fall again. Choice was down 1.77 and select down .71 on Thursday. Cash hog strength provides boost to hog futures. Pork cutout was down 38. The feeder cattle index dropped 3.79 to 144.36.

Markets as of 5:20 AM

  • Mar Corn    -1
  • Mar Beans   -2 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   -2 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  +.62
  • Feb Hogs    -.15
  • Mar Dlr     -.18
  • Mar S&P     +3.00
  • Mar Crude   +.46
  • Feb Gold    -2.50


Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538

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