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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Quiet Trade Overnight

Nov 28, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 28, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grains futures are mostly lower on profit taking after the several day rallies. Corn and wheat have bounced off of lows on strength in Euro wheat. There is more talk of Ukraine slowing exports. Cash markets respond to corn’s highest close in 4 weeks with limited inquires by farmer and no pricing interest. However, gulf bids improve as traders wonder if China has bought more beans. The concern over low water levels on the Mississippi south of St Louis has the Illinois River basis slipping. The first notice day for December contracts is Friday. One would not expect any deliveries in corn but the delivery locations along the IL River could find an advantage knowing that the corn is not going to be loaded out of their facility. There is a small carry in the December/March spread. Weather forecasts for Argentina suggest more heavy rains on the way which would delay planting even further. The technical buying has supported grain futures with minimal selling at resistance. Funds were huge buyers yesterday in all grains. Watch headlines for direction today. A few cattle traded at 128 in Texas yesterday with most feedlots asking 130. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down .77 and select up .77. The premium of Dec futures to the cash index may be limiting upside potential. Pork cutout values were up 1.63 on Tuesday. Higher grain prices are driving livestock producer losses which could cause further herd liquidations. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013
 
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Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    + 3/4
Jan Beans   -4 3/4
Dec Wheat   - 1/4
Dec Cattle +.40
Dec Hogs    +.50
Dec Dlr     +.08
Dec S+P     -3.25
Jan Crude   -.51
Dec Gold    -3.80
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Mar Wheat exploded higher yesterday and has now confirmed the $8.45 low as the pivot low that must be broken in order to negate the recent strength. However, I still am approaching the wheat market with a level of caution due to the continued sideways trend and lack of follow through that we have seen at the highs…Frank La Placa
 
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Ukraine: The Agriculture Ministry reports grain exports between July 1 and November 26 total 11.51 million tonnes. Of that, wheat exports now total 5.42 mt. A further 382,000 tonnes is in ports preparing for shipment. That brings the total to 5.8 mt. This would be just over the 5.5 mt estimate the government verbally told exporters. This should now represent the exit of Ukraine from the wheat export market.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
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