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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Radar Maps Show System Weakening

Jun 21, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 21, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are lower on profit taking and hope of rain. Weather markets are volatile and retracements are normal. Markets should be well supported on setbacks until a good rain covers dry areas. The GFS model added more moisture to the northwestern cornbelt while reducing the rainfall in the IN and OH. World Weather Inc. is still looking for some moisture to fall over the cornbelt but not enough to replenish depleted soil conditions. July options expire on Friday with the most open interest at the 6.00 strike price. The Fed announcements yesterday were basically status quo. However, they are going to extend Operation Twist until the end of the year which was supposed to end at the end of the month. Macro markets are having a tug-o-war with weather and you have to give the advantage to weather. This morning the USDA will give us the weekly export sales number. Trader estimates are for corn 450 to 650 tmt, soybeans 700 to 950 tmt, and wheat 300 to 500 tmt. Traders are talking about next week’s Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres Report which will likely create a lot of volatility. Starting Monday the open outcry market at the CME will open at 9:30 am and close at 2:00 pm. However on days where there is a major USDA report the Open Outcry will open at 7:20 am. Cattle on feed report will be released on Friday and traders are talking about the placement figure. Will we see larger placements due to poor pasture conditions? Cash cattle trade is at a standstill with very light demand. Choice beef was up .06 and select was down .81. Pork futures are overbought and pork cutout value was down .39 on Wednesday. Don’t miss the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26. Get all the details at
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    -4 1/4
Jly Beans   -6 1/2
Jly Wheat   -5 1/4
Aug Cattle -.30
Jly Hogs    -.05
Sep S&P     -4.00
Sep Dlr     +.01
Jly Crude   -.95
Aug Gold    -15.60
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s impressive strength in the July Wheat contract has cleared all levels of technical resistance except the key 5/21/12 pivot high of $7.22. If we do see a correction, the July Wheat should be supported by the last two weeks confluence of lows between $6.07-$6.13 1/2.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
India announced it would sell 3 million tonnes of wheat from government stocks to domestic buyers. This comes as its talks to sell wheat to Iran have gone nowhere. We cannot say this is a new effort to liquidate its bulging stocks situation. It is more likely the government trying to make enough room before new crop comes in.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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