Sep 19, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Rain In Forecast For Argentina

Jan 21, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 21, 2014 at 4:30 am.  Grain futures are mostly lower on crop improvement in South America.

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Argentina received some rain, cooling off temps with more forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Brazil received rain and should dry out for harvest to continue by midweek. Crop conditions in SA are improving and many analysts are adjusting their production estimates for the region.

Celeres raised their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 89.9 while AgRural, a consulting firm in Brazil, has lowered their estimate of the soybean crop to 88.8 mmt versus a previous estimate of 89.2. The USDA latest estimate was 89.0 mmt.

Japan bought 50,000 mt of Canadian wheat. Traders are expecting China to be back looking for wheat as prices have dropped.

(Reuters) Feed millers in Indonesia could buy up to 150,000 tonnes of corn either from India or the United States, with supplies from rival South American exporters tapering off at the end of their marketing season.

"A record volume of maize exports during December compensated significantly for lower exports of wheat and barley," SovEcon said. Russia’s 2013 maize crop rose by a third, year-over-year, and hit a record level of 10.7 million tonnes.

China says it will stop stockpiling soybeans but continue with the program for corn and wheat.

The CFTC commitment of traders report showed managed funds reducing short positions in corn and wheat by 27,520 and 16,606 contracts respectively. They increased long positions in soybeans by 18,713 contracts.

Technical traders are now looking for a retest of the 4.17 ½ area in the March corn.

Beef prices remain strong and packer’s margins are in the black even with rally in fed cattle prices last week. Beef carcass equivalent index was up 3.39 for choice and 3.95 for select on Monday. The CME Feeder Index is 173.32. Pork cutout values were up .64 on Monday. We have to call the livestock steady to better on the opening at 9:05.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    – 1/4
  • Mar Beans   -10
  • Mar Wheat   +1
  • Feb Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Feb Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Mar Dlr     +.06
  • Mar S&P     +4.50
  • Feb Crude   -4.20
  • Feb Gold    +.70

Chart of the Day


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