Sep 15, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Rain Makes Grain Attitude by Traders

Jun 24, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 24, 2014at 4:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are lower as traders downsize positions in July contracts. Chart watchers are looking at support in Dec corn at 4.35 and in Nov beans at 12.08 area.

Look ahead to this month’s USDA Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage reports in Allendale Ag Leaders next webinar, tonight at 8:00 PM CDT.Register here.

The upcoming quarterly stocks report is expected to show very tight supplies as exports and crush is running above USDA estimates.

Traders are waiting for the planted acreage numbers that will be released next Monday at 11:00 am. A few studies from Allendale’s research department suggest that corn acres increased in 5 out of last 5 late planting years. Soybean acreage increased 2 of the last 5 late planting years.

Corn crop conditions decline 2% to 74% Good/Excellent which was in line with expectations. The 5 year average is 68%. Soybean ratings declined only 1% to 72% Good/Excellent vs. 64% average. Soybean planting advanced 3% to 95% complete.

Winter wheat harvest climbs 17% to 33% now above the average of 31%. Spring wheat conditions declined 1% last week to 71% Good/Excellent verses 70% last year. Pasture and range conditions post 3rd weekly gain up 1% to 55% Good/Excellent.

First notice day for July contracts is Monday June 30. Therefore the large traders have to reduce their position size by the close on Friday, June 27.

(Reuters) – Football fever is so intense in Brazil, the host of the World Cup soccer tournament, that even the main shipping ports in the commodity-exporting powerhouse are shutting down when the national team plays. In Paranagua, Brazil’s No. 2 soy exporting port, the dock workers’ union negotiated an ordinance that lets them stop working an hour before the match and resume work an hour afterward for a total of around four hours to relax and watch the Brazilian team. "This is unprecedented," said the port’s press representative, Samar Razzak, who added that the port usually operates even during the New Year’s and Christmas holidays. Brazil has not hosted a World Cup since 1950.

Cattle feeders were impressed with their power last week and pulled back on the reigns. For now, this market is still on the positive side of the delayed marketing cycle. Showlist are smaller this week compared to last week.

The Cold Storage report yesterday afternoon showed beef left in storage on May 31 at 378.9 million lbs. This number is 21% smaller than last year.

Beef values remain strong as choice was up 1.88 and select up 3.98. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is 206.54.

The USDA cash summary report showed live hogs added another $2 to $3 on Monday. Friday USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report which many traders are thinking could be negative, just like the last few reports. Pork cutout values were up 2.28 on Monday.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn   -1 1/2   
  • Jul Beans   -10
  • Jul Wheat   -3 1/4
  • Aug Cattle  +.25
  • Jul Hogs    +.52
  • Sep Dlr     -.06
  • Sep S&P     -4.75
  • Aug Crude   -.26
  • Aug Gold   +5.20


Chart of the Day

daily chart

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