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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Rains Pressure Grains

Apr 16, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 16, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are lower as moisture covers Midwest. Funds bank some profits after CFTC Commitment of Traders Report where it showed Fund managers have increased their long position in soybeans to another record position. They reduced long positions in corn last week by 4% to less than 200,000 contracts. Funds continued to build short positions in wheat as they increased short positions by 33% from last week. Weather has been a factor over the weekend as most of the corn belt received well needed moisture. Some areas received more than needed as 3 plus inches fell. The rains should slow planting progress for a few days in most areas. USDA weekly planting progress and crop conditions report will be released this afternoon at 3:00 which should show corn planting on a record pace. The Euro debt crisis is waking up again and investor confidence is being shaken. We must watch headlines closely this week for new events coming out of Eurozone. Livestock futures closed out the week in volatile fashion. Live cattle were up sharply on Thursday and gave much to the gain back on Friday. Nearby lean hog futures were down the limit. The economic data out of China was a huge catalyst in the pressure in futures prices. Outside markets would suggest a lower opening in livestock this morning. Boxed beef was up 1.81 to 178.51 and select was up .57 to 177.33. Pork cutout values were down 1.81 to 77.01. This week, watch for further news headlines concerning China. The Allendale "Planting Special" 6 months for $99.00 will be available through April 20. Sign–up TODAY!
Markets as of 5:00 AM
May Corn    -6 3/4
May Beans   -7 1/2
May Wheat   -6
Apr Cattle stdy-lwr
Apr Hogs    stdy-lwr
Jun S&P     +5.50
Jun $ Ind   +.15
May Crude   -.16
June Gold   -8.40
Allendale Advanced Charts
Corn broke the 100 day moving average and the February low at 6.26 on Friday. A close below 6.26 could find an acceleration of selling pressure.

Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
For weeks the trade has been discussing ideas that a cooling Chinese economy could imply lower demand for commodity goods. The overnight release of 1st quarter GDP only came out to +8.1%. That was lower than the 4th quarter’s 8.9% as well as expectations. Though this would normally be viewed as bearish to US commodities the trade will likely note this could lead to easier monetary policy in the future.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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