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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Ridge May Build Again in Argentina

Jan 09, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 9, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain markets are higher as traders are waiting for the rain in Argentina to materialize and for the USDA Report on Thursday morning. The weekend temperatures in Argentina were upper 90’s to low 100’s. The rain event that the farmers in Argentina have been waiting for should begin today through Wednesday. Rain totals of .80 to 2.00 inches are expected with locally 3.25 inches in crop growing areas. The trade is already concerned about what kind of moisture will follow. The European Model run is suggesting a high pressure ridge moving back in across Argentina later this week. The USDA report on Thursday promises to be a dandy. There will be adjustments in crop production, quarterly grain stocks, supply and demand and winter wheat seeding. The past five years have proved that it is difficult to outguess the USDA on this report. Rich Nelson’s study of price movement from the close on the day before to the close of the day of the report has been very significant in recent years. In 2009 and 2010 corn prices were limit down. In 2011 corn prices were up 24 cents. We are suggesting to producers to get some 2012 corn priced ahead of this report and use option strategies to allow you to benefit on rallies. Call your Allendale Advisors today. Sign up today for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference. Cash cattle traded on Friday at steady to 1.00 lower than last week. Product was down on Friday with choice off 1.20 and select down .68. Pork cutout was down .27. The weather condition throughout the Midwest and plains has been excellent for livestock rate of gain. This is putting pressure on product as meat supplies grow. Seasonals suggest prices should strengthen over the next several weeks. Technicals are telling a different story.  
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Corn: 6 to 8 higher               Beans: 9 to 11 higher          Wheat:10 to 12 higher
Live Cattle: steady to .20 lower                                Lean Hogs: steady to .20 lower
Dollar: .14 lower                    Crude: .49 lower                   Gold: 1.50 higher
Allendale Advanced Charts
After failing to close above the November high two sessions in a row, the crude oil closed the week on a weak note. Overall the market remains in an uptrend, but struggles with resistance.



Nelson Notesfrom the desk of Rich Nelson
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports December employment grew by 200,000 jobs. That beat expectations of 150,000. A moderately improving US economy may be bullish to the US dollar. This could pressure commodities.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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