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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Ridging Pattern Drives Grains Higher

Aug 26, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 26, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher as grain markets return to a weather market. Forecasts are for a high pressure ridge to build over the central US this week and keep any chance of rain to the north and temps could reach triple digits in some areas. It should be noted that weather models are increasing chances of rain for first half of next week with conflicting amounts. The Euro is a bit dryer than the GFS model.

Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar for August will be held on Tuesday night. Our guest this month will be Brad Rippey, a USDA Meteorologist.  We are in the second week of the 24th Annual Yield Survey, your survey result are very important. We will release our findings on Sept 4th at 7:30AM. Here is a sampling of results received during week one:

  USDA PF Tour PF Official Allendale
  Aug 12   Release Week 1
Indiana 166 167.36 163 173
Minnesota 166 181.1 163 159
North Dakota 116     109

 

Corn and soybean conditions are expected to drop 2 to 3% on this afternoon’s Crop Progress Report.

Corn basis continues to rise across the country as farmers are not willing to clean out the bins until they are sure drought or frost will keep them from getting a crop. Soybean basis is drifting lower with the rally in futures.

Last week’s crop tour reduced yield in corn to 154.1 compared to USDA’s 154.4 and reduced soybeans to 41.8 compared to USDA’s 42.6. In calculating total production they took off 1.8 million acres of harvested corn acres and 800,000 acres of soybeans because of prevent planting.

Managed money futures covered 31,443 contracts in corn to give them a net short position of 91.778. They were also net buyers in soybeans adding 52,811 contracts. Soymeal and soyoil also had funds adding to long positions. Wheat had little change.

The USDA surprised cattle traders with CoF numbers Friday. On feed 94% (est. 95.8), placed 90% (est. 98.6) and marketed 105% (est. 104.4). Placement numbers suggest very tight 4th quarter 2013 and 1st quarter fed cattle supplies. The cattle futures are expected to open higher off of that report. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up .35 and select down 1.19. The CME Feeder Index settled at 155.59 down .04. Pork cutout values were up .93 as retailers fills needs for the holiday.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +18 1/4
  • Nov Beans   +55
  • Sep Wheat   +10 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  Higher
  • Oct Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Sep Dlr     +.05
  • Sep S&P     -1.50
  • Oct Crude   -.05
  • Oct Gold    +.50

 

View the Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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