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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Sandy Has Effect on Volume

Oct 30, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 30, 2012 at 4:50 am. Grains are higher as traders prepare for damage results from northeast US. The remnants of Hurricane Sandy and the closing of the New York Stock Exchange for a second day will likely lead to another quiet day at the CME. Weekly crop conditions report is expected to be released this afternoon but Washington is assessing the damage from the storm. Demand is still a key factor and the spread between South American and US corn has moved from $60 to $30 a tonne. Domestic demand is slowing in the livestock industry with fewer cattle on feed and tighter hog numbers. Ethanol processors are now reluctant to use aflatoxin corn as they worry about finding buyers for contaminated DDGs. Funds rolling of positions will begin in earnest on Wednesday with Rogers Fund, Duetsche Bank Fund on Friday and Goldman next Wednesday. First notice day is tomorrow for November contracts in grains. Technical support was tested in corn on Monday at 7.32 1/2. Expect more selling if this level is broken. Newswires are reporting that in an interview with CME Chairman Duffy said that CME will not trim electronic grain trading hours. Crude oil refineries are closed which could reduce demand and pressure prices. Choice beef was up .68 and select was down .62. The weather on the east coast is disrupting demand at a time when choice beef values are testing the $200.00 level. Cash cattle are expected to trade steady to .50 lower this week. Pork cutout was up .09 on Monday. Join us tonight at 8:00 PM CDT for the Ag Leaders Webinar. We will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose (who will also be a speaker at Allendale Conference in January). We hope you can join us for the webinar. Registration is free and open to everyone.
Markets as of 4:50 AM
Dec Corn    +3
Nov Beans   +6 1/2
Dec Wheat   +4 1/4
Dec Cattle +.02
Dec Hogs    +.40
Dec Dlr     -.17
Dec S+P     -2.75
Dec Crude   +.11
Dec Gold    +4.40
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Live Cattle found support at the bottom end of the channel that it has been in for the last four months. The story for Live Cattle will be how it recovers from this latest sell off. If we see enthusiastic buying from these lows we can assume that we will make a run at the upper edge of the channel. If it takes multiple sessions to take out the pivot high of $128.30 I would guess that the recovery attempt will fail…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Indian wheat industry believes they are the right country to fill the hole left from Ukraine’s exit from the export market. One industry executive, M. K. Dattaraj notes prices are $10 to $14 per tonne lower than the US. He notes Australia won’t be a force until early January when its new crop is at the ports. One limiting factor is shipping. It can take anywhere from 15 to 60 days just to load a ship at its various ports.
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