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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

September Starts with Strong Opening in Grains

Sep 04, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 4, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher as November soybeans set new all-time highs. Allendale will announce the results of the 23rd Annual Yield Survey at 7:30 this morning. On the Allendale YouTube "Morning Coffee" we will have the results of the survey with some comments on production data. The remnants of Hurricane Isaac provided plenty of moisture for IL south of I80 then east into IN and OH. Amounts in southern IL were 3 to 5 inches. This rainfall will help the wheat seeding and late planted beans that survived the drought. It will cause delays in harvest this week which is adding some strength to futures. Crop conditions and harvest progress will be out this afternoon at 3 pm. Egypt bought 355,000 tonnes of wheat over the weekend most of it from Russia, the balance from Ukraine and Romania. Macro events which will impact the markets this week are: the ECB meeting on Thursday, where it is expected Draghi will make an announcement on bond buying. Then, Friday traders will be watching the US Unemployment data, unchanged at 8.3% is expected. Will we see more beginning of month fund buying this week? Cash cattle markets ended the week on a firm note however boxed beef was under pressure. Choice was down 1.21 and select was down.57. Hog processors have a short week this week and will not have to be aggressively looking for hogs. Pork cutout values were down .12 on Friday. The loss in lean hog futures was the largest monthly decline since 2002.
Markets as of 5:10AM
Dec Corn    +9 3/4
Nov Beans   +24 1/4
Sep Wheat   +8 1/4
Oct Cattle called steady
Oct Hogs    called steady
Sep S&P     +1.75
Sep Dlr     -.08
Oct Crude   +.78
Dec Gold    +8.10
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn continues its sideways trend but is beginning to feel technically "heavy" above $8.00.  The 8/21 $8.40 pivot high is the high that this market must close above to negate the short term down trend and reverse the direction of the market and continue the broader bull market. If we do see continued weakness, a close below $7.86 would confirm a peak and reversal which would demand defensive measures for producers…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The much talked about Food Safety Committee concluded with a surprising turn. This meeting among government agriculture representatives not open to the public, ended with the Deputy Prime Minister saying, "As long as I am in charge of this sector, I will be against any export restrictions." The meeting ended with Russia saying it would not ban or restrict exports. The world grain trade is still adamant in is expectations for some controls later on. However, it appears for two or three months the trade will not see any changes made.  
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