Should I Sell or Should I Buy Before Reports?
Jan 08, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 8, 2014 at 4:45 am.
Grain futures are mixed in a very quiet trading session. However choppy trade is expected going into fund re-balancing (starting today) and USDA reports (Friday).
There are four different reports which will be released on Friday at 11AM. They will likely have a significant impact on futures prices. We feel certain that the reports will have something for everyone to talk about. The most important report will be the Quarterly Stock Report for corn. The USDA will have a difficult time raising feed and residual usage for two important reasons. The late harvest impacted the availability early in the quarter compared to last year. Only 7% of corn was harvested by the week of September 22 compared to 39% last year at that time. Livestock feed usage is hard to determine; we had less cattle in feedlots, less poultry and less hog numbers. There is a possibility of a bearish report and if you are holding unpriced grain why would you not want some price protection during this potentially market moving report? There are many option strategies a producer could implement for minimal cost. Talk to an Allendale Representative in our home office or one of our 15 branch offices.
Argentina weather remains favorable in 80 to 85% of the major producing areas.
China and DDG inspections have been the feature of conversation as soymeal traders wait for an official announcement the MIR 162 is no longer a problem for importers. The slide in DDG values in recent weeks has come to a halt as bids were higher late yesterday.
The Polar Vortex has slowed movement of grain and created problems for barge movement on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers. Gulf basis was firmer as USDA announced the 350,000 tonnes of soybeans to China.
Financial markets are waiting for the employment number Friday morning at 7:30.
Cattle futures are doing some back and fill action. Feedlots are expecting cash to be steady to higher this week while product is strong. Beef values were higher with choice up 1.77 and select up 2.18.
Pork traders are worried about more hogs being backed up because of holidays and cold weather. Pork cutout values were sharply higher on Tuesday, posting a 2.48 gain.
Mark your calendar and sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 28, 29 and 30. We will deliver it directly to your home.
See you in DeKalb IL this morning at 9:00 am.
Markets as of 4:45 AM
- Mar Corn +1
- Jan Beans -3 1/4
- Mar Wheat +3 1/4
- Feb Cattle +.05
- Feb Hogs -.27
- Mar Dlr +.18
- Mar S&P -2.25
- Feb Crude +.06
- Feb Gold -3.60
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