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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Sight Set On Planting Progress

May 12, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 12, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are mostly lower on expected planting progress and follow through reaction from USDA report.

Moisture and planting progress make for ideal conditions in some areas of the Midwest.

Planting progress is expected to have had great strides last week and some think we could be near the 5 year average for corn on May 11 of 58%. On the May 4th update it was 29%. In the past five years we have added anywhere from 6% to 20% with an average gain of 14%. The ultimate record planting in this particular week was a 34% gain in 1987. Traders are guessing soybean planting could be 15 to 35% completed.

The Buenos Aries Commodity Exchange is estimating corn harvest a 29% complete and soybean harvest at 64% done. Traders are watching labor issues in Argentina’s main port of Rosario.

Last trading day is Wednesday for the May contracts in the grain complex. NOPA will release their soybean crush data for April on Thursday at 11:00 am.

The vote in Ukraine over the weekend is not sanctioned by the EU and they will not accept the outcome. Reports of multiple voting issues such as votes being placed several times by the same person and no voting booths to cast the votes are just a few of the problems. The real question is, "What will Putin do with the voting results?"

USDA revised their 2014 pork production estimate by a moderate 109 million pounds which moved their 2014 estimate from a 1.8% decline vs. 2013 to now a 2.3% decline. They still have some sharp differences in supply projections compared to the private trade. Pork cutout values are down .35.

USDA did not change much on their 2014 beef balance sheet. Production was lowered by 14 million pounds from the previous month’s guess. That took this year’s production from a 4.4% drop to now a 4.6% decline. With a moderate change in exports the amount of beef offered to the US consumer will run 4.3% lower than 2013. They also gave us their first estimates for 2015 which showed a decline of 1.0% year over year. Beef cutout values were weak with choice down 2.39 and select down .30. The CME Feeder Index is 182.72. The early call would be steady-lower.

Markets as of 4:30 AM        

  • Jul Corn    -4
  • Jul Beans   +1
  • Jul Wheat   -14
  • Jun Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Jun Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Jun Dlr     -10
  • Jun S&P     +3.00
  • Jun Crude   +.24
  • Jun Gold    +5.00

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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