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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Soybean Planting Progress Well Ahead of Estimates

May 22, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 22, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are lower on crop progress and profit taking. Tonight is Allendale’s Ag Leaders Webinar. Rich Nelson, Mike Kavanaugh and Frank LaPlaca will examine dry weather’s effect on crop conditions, grain acreage shifts and chart pattern price projections. You must register HERE to join meeting! The USDA gave us the 5th highest corn good to excellent conditions rating in the last 26 years. In the four years where we started with better conditions than this year there was an even split on yields above and below trend at year end. Planting progress in soybeans were 76% complete compared to 68% expected by trade. Weather forecasts are expected to dominate headlines and direction of futures as we approach the long weekend ahead. World Weather Inc.: "The bottom line leaves pressure on rainfall potentials for next week in the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states where the need for rain will be great after this week’s net drying. Some relief is most definitely anticipated, but how significant the rain is next week will be debated for a while..." Elevators are struggling with cash bid posting as settlement prices at CME are from 1:15 and markets trade until 2:00 pm. Reports that ag option traders are lobbying CME to extend option trading times from 7:20 am to 1:15 pm. The next USDA monthly supply and demand report is due to be released at 7:30 am on June 12. We hope things get settled by then. EU tensions have cooled off  but Merkel’s party in Germany is losing ground in upcoming elections. Cash cattle buyers will be looking at the short week ahead and will not need as many head. Fill-in buying for Memorial Day supported choice beef on Monday as prices were up 2.08 with select down .09. Pork cutout values were up .21. Hog futures were hit with bear spreading as firmer corn prices reduce profitability for producers. Check out the Allendale "Morning Coffee" on YouTube at 8:00AM.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    -5 3/4
Jly Beans   -6 1/4
Jly Wheat   -17
Jun Cattle +.32
Jun Hogs    -.07
Jun S&P     -2.50
Jun Dlr     +.20
Jun Crude   -.61
June Gold   -12.40
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Monday’s trade in July Wheat fell short of taking out the 10/11/11 high of $7.30 1/2.  A close above the $7.30 ½ high creates a scenario in which the cap that has been on July Wheat for the past 7 months. A close below $6.60 would be needed to break the uptrend.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Between May 8 and May 15, Managed Money made the follow position changes in contracts…corn -34,656, soybeans -12,240, wheat -3,870, hogs +1,776, and cattle +1,334. Official stats for the move since last Tuesday have yet to be released.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.



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