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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Soybeans Break Technical Support

Nov 12, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 12, 2012 at 5:10 am. We want to thank our veterans and active service men and women on this Veterans Day for keeping us safe. Grains are mostly lower as speculators and investors exit positions. The 200 day moving average was taken out early in the overnight session in January soybeans. Other chart support points were also penetrated this morning. China’s Dalian Exchange soyoil contract made lows not seen since June of 2010. The USDA’s report on Friday which increased US soybean production is causing traders to liquidate long positions. Weather in South America will give Argentina producers time to get some planting done and Brazil should get more moisture in areas where needed. Funds continue to reduce positions in the grains while building short positions in soyoil by 13,032 contracts. Traders are waiting to see some confirmation of new sales especially in soybeans after being down 75 cents last week. The bulls in the corn market are continuing to tout the narrowing of price spread between world corn and US corn. Technical support is 7.32 in Dec corn. It is likely sell orders are building below that level. Boxed beef was under pressure on Friday with choice down 1.37 and select down 2.39. Turkey will dominate the weekly features at the retail counter the next few weeks as Thanksgiving approaches. Pork cutout values were down .33. Livestock futures are expected to open steady to lower. Some packing plants will be closed today in observance of Veterans Day.  Sign up for the Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference to be held on January 25 and 26, 2013.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +3 1/2
Jan Beans   -22 3/4
Dec Wheat   -5 1/2
Dec Cattle Stdy-Lwr
Dec Hogs    Stdy-Lwr
Dec Dlr     -.03
Dec S+P     +2.75
Dec Crude   -.23
Dec Gold    +5.90
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn held the $7.32 level on what was the fifth attempt to break this support level. You could also argue that the outside range day which does imply a short term change in trend could become a catalyst for a move to the upper edge of the recent trading range…Frank La Placa 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
A slight rise in ending stocks was reported Friday. As we have noted before, these November reports are "incomplete". USDA did not change planted or harvested acreage and did not even touch the major demand numbers. Instead, a moderate rise in imports, a slight increase in yield, and a moderate increase in non-ethanol industrial was reported. We still expect a moderate decrease in harvested acreage on the January report. That should be more than offset when USDA lowers export and feed demand. Eventually, March corn is seen having a 715 downside price…Rich Nelson
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