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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Soybeans Crush Data Concerns Trade about Ending Stocks

Jun 18, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 18, 2013 at 4:50 am.  Grains futures are higher this morning in a quiet overnight session. June, July and August soybean crush must be down 19% to make USDA’s numbers work on the last S+D balance sheet. In other terms, that means 1 out every 5 processing plants must be closed completely during this period. Trade will have to deal with the question, can we import enough soybeans to meet crushing needs? The late planting of soybeans could also create a hole in supply during late Aug and Sep. Planting progress was in line with trade estimates at 85% complete as of Sunday. Soybean conditions are starting the season at 64% which was a little better than what trade was expecting. Corn conditions improved 1% to 64% good to excellent. The June 28 Planted Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports will create positioning volatility over the next 9 days. July corn is expected to trade independent of the new crop contracts. Farmers are strong holders and will not clean out their bins until they see corn tasseling. Weather forecasts are being watched closely as traders remember last summer’s rally starting on June 18. Boxed beef was higher on Monday with choice up 1.66 and select up .24. Cash cattle markets were quiet. The feeder index was up .18 to 136.32.  Futures found support due to short covering and buy stops. The July hog futures are now at a sizable discount to the cash price. Pork cutout values were up .50 on Monday. Technically, lean futures are overbought and live cattle futures are oversold. Stay in touch with your Allendale Broker and remember to sign up for the June Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar.

Yesterday’s poll asked, "What price will Dec corn hit first?"

$4.50 – 67.4%

$6.50 – 32.6%

Thank you for your participation!

Markets as of 4:50 AM

  • Jul #Corn    +2
  • Jul #Beans   +2 1/4
  • Jul #Wheat   +5 1/4
  • Aug #Cattle  -.22
  • Jul #Hogs    +.17
  • Sep Dlr     -.10
  • Sep S&P     +5.75
  • Jul Crude   -.18
  • Aug Gold    -6.00


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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