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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Soybeans Higher, Corn Lower Going into Report

Oct 11, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 11, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are mixed with beans up 15 to 20 and corn down 1 to 2 cents. A reminder: the open outcry session for grains opens today at 7:20 due to the USDA report at 7:30. Key trade estimates are: yield for corn at 122.9 bpa and soybeans at 37.0 bpa. Harvested acres estimate for corn is 86.136 which is 1.225 million acres less than USDA Sept number. Ending Stocks estimates for corn and soybeans are 648 and 134 million bushel, respectively. This would suggest tighter corn supplies and larger soybean supplies. The report will no doubt have something for both the bulls and bears. I will be sharing details from the report on Allendale "Morning Coffee" on YouTube shortly after the data is released. Once the report reaction is completed, traders will be focusing on world economic conditions. The IMF is holding their annual meeting in Tokyo, Japan this week. The comments coming out of that conference have trader’s concerned about the economic stability in the EU and the slowdown in China’s economy. Livestock markets are nervous this morning as their bottom line outlook will be impacted by the USDA report. Futures strength and product value improvement is suggesting a higher cash trade for cattle this week. Boxed beef is weaker, choice down .22 and select down .37. Pork cutout value was up .96.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -1
Nov Beans   +18 1/2
Dec Wheat   -6 3/4
Dec Cattle +.32
Dec Hogs    -.52
Dec Dlr     +.03
Dec S+P     +4.75
Nov Crude   +.70
Dec Gold    +5.90
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Lean Hogs broke out to new highs which reconfirms the uptrend. In order to break the uptrend and increase the odds for a reversal lower, we will need to see a close below the $75.80 level which has been confirmed as key support…Frank La Placa 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Harvest of the US corn crop advanced from 54% complete to now 69% in the latest week. This remains a record pace. The five year average and last year at this time are 28% and 29% respectively. Traders were looking for a 70% pace this week.
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