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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Soybeans Test Technical Support

Nov 09, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 9, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grains are mixed this morning. Corn is higher while wheat and soybeans are lower. Traders are waiting for the USDA Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports. Trade is looking for a corn carryout to increase from 619 up to 635 million bushel. Trade average estimate for total corn production is a drop from 10.706 billion bushel in October to 10.629 billion bushel. Soybeans should see a small carryout increase from 130 to 133 million bushels and production could see a 30 to 40 million bushel increase. Wheat stocks should see a small increase from 654 up to 666 million bushel. World wheat production could be a market mover as many analysts are lowering Australian wheat from USDA’s 23 mmt to less than 20 mmt. Technical support is still 7.32 in Dec corn and 14.84 in Jan soybeans. If these levels are broken after the report, one could expect more sell-stops being hit. The conciliatory comments out of Washington create hope that the economy will not hit the "fiscal cliff". There has been talk in recent days that the Mississippi River maybe severely restricted or shut down completely in a few weeks due to low water levels between St Louis and Cairo. Tune into the Allendale "Morning Coffee" for details and reactions to the report. Cash cattle traded at 125 yesterday; many feedlots are still holding out for 128 to 129. Boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday with choice down .69 and select down .21. Beef space will be reduced at the retail counter for the next 2 weeks as Thanksgiving approaches. However with the current reduction in slaughter we could see a retest of highs in the product in early December. Pork cutout value was up .99 yesterday. Some packing plants will be closed on Monday in observance of Veterans Day.  Sign up for the Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference to be held on January 25 and 26, 2013.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    + 3/4
Jan Beans   -10 1/4
Dec Wheat   -2 1/2
Dec Cattle -.12
Dec Hogs    -.07
Dec Dlr     +.15
Dec S+P     -3.75
Dec Crude   -.42
Dec Gold    +4.40
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Wheat looks to have broken out to the upside; finally getting over the $8.95 level that has capped this market for the last month. With yesterday’s breakout, the trend is up and a challenge of the 7/23 $9.53 high, while not likely, is also not out of the question…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Wednesday night’s government sale of China’s state soybean stocks saw little participation. Only 65,495 tonnes of soybeans were sold out of the 397,204 tonnes that were offered.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
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