Spreaders Focus on Tight Current Supplies
May 17, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 17, 2012 at 4:10 am. Comments are a little early this morning as I have to catch a flight to New York for the day. Corn and soybean futures are lower. Spreading old crop versus new crop and weather has taken the bite out of the bear. Large volume of spreads was done in corn beans and wheat yesterday. Dry conditions in Russia and Kazakhstan are becoming more serious as well as the western portion of the southern plains in the US. Large traders have been heavily short wheat. Until rains arrive, expect more short covering. Grains have been separating themselves from the chaos in the EU. Watch the headlines for further downgrades in investor confidence. CME grain trading hours will not change on Sunday. The CME withdrew the request for 22 hrs. sessions and will likely ask for a 21 hrs. session starting at 5:00 pm running through 2 pm the following day. Weekly export sales estimates for this morning are soybeans 1.0-1.3 mmt, soymeal 150-200 tmt and soyoil 30-50 tmt. Corn export sales are expected to range from 800 tmt-1.2 mmt. Wheat sales estimate is 450-750 tmt. Cattle on Feed report due to be released on Friday afternoon at 2 pm. Trade average estimates are for on feed to be 100.3%, placed 88% and marketed 98.4 of a year ago. Boxed beef values were lower and trading of cash cattle remain at a standstill. Choice beef was down .63 and select was down 1.98. Pork cutout values were lower by .31 on Wednesday. Trader will be further adjusting positions ahead of Friday’s report. Don’t forget to sign up for the Ag Leaders Webinar
on May 22, 2012. Join Rich Nelson, Allendale's Director of Research, as he examines potential grain acreage shifts and their impact on supply and futures ahead of USDA's big Grain Stocks report in June. We also will have Mike Kavanaugh, Agronomy Manager of AgriGold, to examine crop conditions and their corresponding yield potential. Frank LaPlaca will examine chart price projections. Register HERE
Markets as of 4:10 AM
Jly Corn -1
Jly Beans +7
Jly Wheat +3 1/4
Jun Cattle +.62
Jun Hogs -.02
Jun S&P +5.00
Jun Dlr +.12
May Crude +.35
June Gold +11.40
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Wednesday’s continued strength in the US Dollar is a direct reflection of the panic in the Euro Zone. The steepness of the uptrend shows the flight to safety from the Euro to the US Dollar.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The China National Grains and Oils Information Centre expect corn production this year to total 197.5 million tonnes. This would surpass USDA’s estimate of 193 mmt and last year’s 191.75. Soybean production is seen at 13 mi. This is right on USDA’s 13.1 estimate and little changed from last year’s 13.5. Wheat production is expected at 120.3 mmt that is right on USDA’s 120.0 and a little above 117.92 last year.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.