Spreading Ahead Of Supply Demand Report
Apr 09, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 9, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed as spreading dominates trade. Starting off the week we have traders coming back from a long week with what they feel will be bullish news on Tuesday. The CFTC commitment of traders report showed funds adding to their record long position in beans by another 25,000 contracts. In corn funds reduced long positions by nearly 22,000. Traders will be watching the USDA Weekly progress report this afternoon as it is likely to show a sizeable increase in corn plantings. There should be a lot of corn planted this week as rain is spotty in the forecast now. Tomorrow morning the USDA will release the April Supply and Demand Report which traders are looking for sizeable reduction in old crop corn and bean ending stocks. This should keep the markets firm into that report. Managed money liquidated over 16,000 long positions in live cattle futures last week and 6,700 contracts in Lean Hog. Choice boxed beef was lower by .90 on Friday and select was down 1.36. Pork cutout was up .39. The weaker stock market indices this morning from poor unemployment news on Friday could cause livestock to open lower. Reminder: check the Allendale Research Center for 6 months for only $99.00.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
May Corn +3/4
May Beans -1 3/4
May Wheat +0
Apr Cattle Stdy-lwr
Apr Hogs Stdy-lwr
Jun S&P -15.25
Jun $ Ind +.07
May Crude -1.58
June Gold +10.50
Allendale Advanced Charts
For the third session in a row the corn market tested the downtrend and the 200 day moving average and failed. A close above the 6.66 level could trigger many buy stops.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Private analysts estimate the following changes for Tuesday’s monthly supply/demand report. Corn stocks may decline from 801 to 721 million bushels. Soybean stocks are seen declining from 275 to 246 million bushels. Wheat stocks are expected to decline from 825 to 792 million bushels. In that mix, Allendale’s estimates are 742, 240, and 825 million respectively.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.