Standoff On the Hill Continues
Oct 03, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 3, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher on short covering. Soybeans are finding support due to rain slowing down harvest.
The stalemate on getting the government back to work is having a significant impact on grain traders. Without USDA data, the harvest results from producers are getting the spotlight. More soybean yields are being reported as larger than expected while corn yields are still coming in at record levels.
The October 11th USDA Supply and Demand report is likely to be postponed until a later date as government employees are usually gathering data this week. Currently, data collection offices are dark.
Washington reporters are now expecting the government to be shut down for at least a 2 weeks.
Soybean bids have improved at processors ahead of the weather system moving across the cornbelt later this week. Corn basis is steady to weaker on harvest movement.
Stats Canada will be releasing their wheat production number tomorrow morning. Traders are expecting a large wheat number out of Canada.
There is talk that Eric Cantor may be appointed to the House Conference Committee on Farm Bill. This would suggest a major confrontation over the wide difference between the House and Senate’s approach to cuts of the Food Stamp Program.
Today’s USDA weekly export report will be delayed due to government shutdown. However trade analysts were expecting the following: Corn 500 to 700 tmt, soybeans 800 to 1,000 tmt, meal 150 to 300 tmt, soyoil 5 to 15 tmt and wheat 500 to 750 tmt.
Heavy rains in Ukraine are slowing planting of winter wheat and export shipments. This could be good for US wheat exports.
Lean hog traders at CME have been liquating their October positions as the CME works on a fair settlement formula. The lack of USDA hog values is limiting information to calculate a settlement value for October expiration on the 14th. The delivery process for the October live cattle contract should not be affected by the government shutdown. Cash cattle bids are 123 in the south with no offers from sellers.
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Markets as of 5:00 AM
- Dec Corn +1 3/4
- Nov Beans +7 1/4
- Dec Wheat +3 1/4
- Dec Cattle -.17
- Dec Hogs +.22
- Dec Dlr -.06
- Dec S&P -5.50
- Nov Crude -.28
- Dec Gold -10.70
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