Sep 19, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Technical Damage To Soybean Chart

Jan 03, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 3, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are slightly higher on bargain hunting but overall issues still remain. The weather in South America is good for crop growth while supplies at home are large.

We’ll release our full 2014 price outlooks at our conference webinar series. Get full details on the conference here.

Driving home last night from a funeral in Southern IL I noticed a major grain elevator in central IL moving corn from the bin to outside storage. It looked as if they wanted to get the pile of corn moved and covered before the next snowfall. Temperature was about 5 above at the time. Does this mean that the elevator is making room for more corn coming in over the next few weeks?

Traders are looking ahead to next week’s USDA reports. If you are in the DeKalb area next Wednesday I will be discussing the report possibilities at the Northern Illinois Farm Show at 9:00 am.

Weekly export sales report out this morning at 7:30.

                        Estimate in tonnes
Corn             650,000-850,000             
Soybeans     500,000-800,000
Soymeal         50,000-100,000
Soyoil              10,000-40,000
Wheat            350,000-550,000   

Later this morning we will get the ethanol production data that was delayed due to the holiday.

Reports are that the US Grain Council is not expecting a quick solution to the Chinese GMO corn import issue.

Northern regions of Brazil are reporting soybean harvest is underway on early planted crop.

Technical damage to the soybean and wheat charts yesterday may have a longer lasting effect unless we can quickly stop the freefall. March soybean contract closed below the key 100 and 200 day moving averages. March wheat closed below the psychological 6.00 level on Thursday.

Cash cattle traded higher than last week at 135 to 137. Our Rich Nelson is looking for cattle prices to trend higher into February as fed cattle supplies continue to tighten. The chart picture looks positive, closing at new highs. Beef cutout values werelower on Thursday with choice down .10 and select down .36. The CME Feeder Index is 167.48.

Firmer beef prices and extreme cold weather are supporting hog futures. Pork cutout values were down .37. Packers will have a full work week next week and are looking for enough inventories.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    +2
  • Jan Beans   +4 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.12
  • Feb Hogs    -.17
  • Mar Dlr     -.06
  • Mar S&P     +1.25
  • Feb Crude   -.03
  • Feb Gold    +7.20

Chart of the Day


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