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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Tight Stocks Keep Soybean Bulls Alive

May 29, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 29, 2014 at 4:50 am CDT.  

Grain futures are mixed. Soybeans are leading the strength on tight supplies of old crop and talk that China may be looking for immediate needs.

Wheat is higher on short covering and dry weather forecasts for Russia’s grain producing area. Corn continues to be pressured by US crop getting off to a good start.

The Roger Fund Roll should begin today and the Goldman Roll starts next week. Bear spreading will be a feature as they roll out of the nearby contracts.

The July soybean contract has had the propensity to rally ahead of the weekly export sales report. This week the report will be released on Friday morning due to the holiday.

There have been more reports of South American soybeans coming into the US. Traders are now suggesting the amount of beans which have arrived, in transit and still to be loaded could equal 60 million bushels or more. Add in the imports from Canada and total imports project to nearly 90 million bushels, the USDA’s forecast.

Canadian National Railway Co. said on Wednesday it is exceeding grain-shipment levels mandated earlier this year by the Canadian government despite a record crop that has squeezed available transportation and infrastructure.

The weekly EIA report will be released later this morning.

Cash cattle trade this week is expected to be steady to weaker as showlist numbers increase and packers call in contracts. However packer margins are in the black which could cause feedlots to hold out for higher prices. The high cost of feedlot replacements is another reason to put more weight on cattle before marketing. Beef values were higher with choice up 1.19 and select up 1.50. CME Feeder Index is 191.89.

The number of PEDv cases at the nation’s animal health diagnostic labs continued to decline as of the week ending May 10 with 189 positive cases reported that week.

Lean hog futures have been hit with technical and fund liquidation the last few sessions. There have been more reports from pork producers of PEDv coming back a second time. Many believe we have not seen the tight numbers from last winter’s spread of the virus. Pork cutout values improved on Wednesday by 2.36 with 455 loads traded.

Markets as of 4:50 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn    – 3/4
  • Jul Beans   +9 1/2
  • Jul Wheat   +4 3/4
  • Jun Cattle  +.85
  • Jun Hogs    +.40
  • Jun Dlr     -.15
  • Jun S&P     +1.25
  • Jul Crude   +.14
  • Jun Gold    -6.20

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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