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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Tight Stocks Worry Traders

Jun 26, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 26, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grains futures are mixed with corn and wheat higher and soybeans lower. The outside markets are seeing risk–off selling again this morning. Old crop continues to gain on the new crop corn prices as the tight cash market is providing support. The warm weather and plentiful moisture is weighing on the new crop contracts. Trading volume has decreased the last few days as we approach the report Friday morning. When focusing on the quarterly stock data we find it to be high risk when guessing corn usage during the 3rd quarter. Soybean usage seems to have been an easier target for analysts to hit in recent years. Producer clients we talk to on a daily basis seem to have the opinion it doesn’t matter what the USDA says on Friday, the actual acreage will be less. We suggest that the acreage number Friday is not as important as yield this year. The USDA is currently projecting a 2% increase in harvested acres. USDA’s yield estimate is 27% higher than last year. Traders are becoming concerned about late season supplies of corn as ethanol demand will determine price. Weekly ethanol production and stocks will be released later this morning. The quarterly stocks data will determine if more rationing has to take place before new crop supplies arrive. Wheat harvest is moving north and we are hearing good yields and good quality even in KS where USDA said conditions were 45% poor to very poor and 27% fair. Cash cattle sales are at a standstill, as packers in the south are starting this week’s bidding at 117. Most cattle traded at 120 last week. Mexico said on Tuesday it has restricted live pork imports from the United States due to the outbreak of PED in the US. Boxed beef was lower on Tuesday as choice was down 1.68 and select down .66. The feeder index is 137.21. Pork cutout value on Tuesday was 109.88 up .77. Thanks to all attending the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar last evening. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to call your Allendale Representative.

 Yesterday’s poll asked: How many soybean acres will USDA report on Friday?

No change from March–15.24%
Under 1 million more than March–38.1%
Over 1 million more than March–46.67%


Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Jul #Corn    +4 1/4
  • Jul #Beans   -7 1/4
  • Jul #Wheat   +1
  • Aug #Cattle  +.10
  • Jul #Hogs    -.05
  • Sep Dlr     +.21
  • Sep S&P     +7.50
  • Aug Crude   +.46
  • Aug Gold    -47.50


View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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