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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Trade Adjusts For Midweek Reports

Sep 10, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 10, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures have firmed up overnight with corn and wheat higher, soybeans steady. Harvest should pick up this week as the weather clears out of the Midwest. More showers are expected this coming weekend. But more important is the USDA report on Wednesday morning at 7:30. We have heard a lot of talk about yield with the trade average estimate is 120.59 bushels per acre for corn and 35.79 bushels per acre for soybeans. However the real question is whether or not the USDA will give us any adjustment to harvested acres. Normally they will not make any changes in planted versus harvested until the October report. Wednesday will be a big day for the macro markets as this month’s Fed meeting will conclude and many anticipate Chairman Bernanke to make an announcement of another quantitative easing program. Expect traders to get positioned for midweek volatility. Southern hemisphere weather is getting some attention but will likely be overshadowed this week. Soybeans basis fell another .10 in Decatur on Friday. Boxed beef values were lower on Friday with choice down .83 and select down .16. Pork values were down .34. Tight supplies of fed cattle are support cash markets however the opposite is reality in hogs. The cooler weather is allowing hogs a better rate of gain and high feed cost are pushing supplies to market. Packer margins are at near record level. Livestock futures are expected to open steady lower this morning.
Markets as of 5:10AM
Dec Corn    +4 3/4
Nov Beans   +4 1/4
Dec Wheat   +7
Oct Cattle steady-Lower
Oct Hogs    Steady-Lower
Sep S&P     -2.50
Sep Dlr     +.08
Oct Crude   +.09
Dec Gold    -4.30
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn has continued its sideways trading range. The longer we stay at these levels without taking out the 8/10 pivot high of $8.49 the higher probability that we begin to see a breakdown of the chart. However you could argue that the 9/06 low of $7.88 is the tightest risk parameter someone could use to base bullish opinions…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Bloomberg newswire released its analyst poll results for Wednesday. Corn production is seen falling 359 million bushels but ending stocks may only go from 650 to 596. Soybean production is seen falling 33 million bushels while ending stocks could fall from 115 to 106. Wheat stocks are seen falling slightly from 698 to 685 million bushels.
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