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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Traders Get Ready for USDA Data

Nov 08, 2011

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 8, 2011 at 5:11 am. There has been light volume in narrow trading ranges in most commodities overnight. Grain markets are coiling which could make the USDA report tomorrow morning very important to price direction. Traders are expecting corn yields and ending stocks to be lower than last month. Soybean stocks could increase as demand has gone into a tailspin. Trade is expecting an increase of 25 to 70 million bushels in soybeans stocks. Today we will again be watching for headlines out of the EU. Now that the Greece problem has cooled down for a while the focus has moved to Italy. CME is working with MFG’s bankruptcy trustee to get customer segregated monies released and allocated to customers’ accounts at their new firms. They even petitioned the USDA to delay the release of Wednesday’s report and USDA said it will be released on November 9 at 7:30 am. The Goldman roll from Dec corn to Mar corn is providing a chance to roll hedges. Hog futures broke key support areas yesterday with fund liquidation and weak cash markets providing the pressure. Cattle cutout values were higher on Monday with choice up 2.03 and select up .14.
 
Markets as of 5:11AM
Corn—0 to 1 higher                       Beans—3 to 5 higher
                       Wheat— 1 to 2 higher
Live Cattle—40 to 50 higher       Lean Hogs—10 to 20 lower
Dollar— .03 lower                          Crude—.73 higher
                          Gold— 4.10 higher
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Hogs closed below several key support points on Monday: 50% retracement, last week’s low, and the 40 day moving average. The next support would be the 62% retracement at 84.70 in Dec Lean Hogs. One could argue that a head and shoulders has been confirmed with a downside target near 81.00.

Nelson Notes from desk of Rich Nelson
Traders are preparing for Wednesday morning’s supply/demand report. Analysts expect a drop in corn stocks from 866 to 801 million bushels. Soybean stocks are seen increasing from 160 to 185 million bushels. Wheat stocks are seen decreasing 837 to 819 million bushels.
 

There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

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