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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Traders Get Ready For USDA Numbers

Nov 09, 2011


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 9, 2011 at 5:20 am. Was yesterday a partial replay of last month when corn futures rallied the day before USDA Report? Will the excitement of the report already been played out? We will have the answers at 7:30 this morning. The trade average estimate for yield is .4 of a bushel less than USDA last month. The corn ending stocks should be lower for US. The real key may be in the adjustments the USDA makes to foreign production. US attachés and government agencies in China, South America and FSU have bumped up production estimates of their crops in recent announcement. The macro markets may overshadow the report. The dollar is sharply higher while stock indexes suggest a lower opening in the Dow. The Greek debt crisis has not been solved and the ball has been put in the Greek government’s court. In order to receive the 8 billion Euros they have to pass a stringent 2012 budget and negotiate the 50% haircut with debt holders in a few weeks. Live cattle futures have found support as cutout values firm and hopes of better cash prices this week. Hog futures continue to break support levels on the charts. Cutout values down 1.52 on Tuesday. Expect volatility in markets that have deteriorating volume. Listen to the Morning Coffee and we will give you our reaction to the USDA Report.
Markets as of 5:20AM
Corn—0 to 1 higher                       Beans—9 to 11 lower
                     Wheat— 6 to 8 lower
Live Cattle—15 to 40 higher       Lean Hogs—10 to 20 lower
Dollar— .82 higher                                    Crude—1.50 lower
                         Gold— 15.20 lower
Allendale Advanced Charts
Spring wheat took off like a rocket on Tuesday after taking out previous resistance near 9.35. The market didn’t stop until it took out the 62% retracement and the August highs of 9.50. However, the close backed off below 9.50 which was a bit disappointing to the bulls. Tomorrow’s trade will be key as we need a close above Tuesday’s high to keep the bull rolling.



Nelson Notes from desk of Rich Nelson
Winter wheat planting is 94% complete. Emergence was seen at 76%. Due to recent rains, the good to excellent rating rose by a surprising 4% from last week and is now 49%. This brings it a little closer to the five year average of 57%. USDA is suggesting the winter wheat crop is improving.



There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.



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