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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Traders Looking For New News

May 19, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 19, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.  

Grain futures are mostly lower with wheat leading the sell-off.

Trade is looking for corn planting progress this afternoon in 70 to75% complete area vs. 59% last week and 79% average.  Soybean planting expected to be 33 to 36% done vs. 20% last week and 38% average. 

The USDA will give us the first national corn ratings for 2014 today, last year we started with 63% good/excellent.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money reducing their long positions in corn by 11,435 and in soybeans by 6,281. They made little change to their net long position in wheat.

All grain contracts at CBOT had a sharp sell-off last week which left the corn and wheat contracts testing major support levels. Technical support crosses at 4.80 or just under in the July corn contract and 6.70 in the July wheat contract. Watch these levels early this week, a close below these prices could push prices lower again.

Weather remains important to traders as planting progresses and plant development starts. However make sure you read Ryan Martin’s morning weather update.

Allendale’s next Ag Leaders Webinar is Tuesday May 27th at 8:00 PM CDT.  Register here. We will be discussing some of the bio-fuels issues in the headlines.

Cattle-on-Feed report was neutral as USDA data came in very close to trade average estimates. Placements during April ran 4.9% under last year. The number of finished cattle leaving feedlots in April, Marketings, was 2.0% under last year. Marketed during April was a 2.4% decline from a year ago. The actual number of cattle that were leaving feedlots last month was the smallest April in this data series (which goes back to 1996). Beef values were higher with choice up .77 and select up 1.24. The CME Feeder Index is 184.25.

Hog slaughter last week was 1.999 million head and 1.9% under last year. Over the past four weeks the kill has run 4.0% under last year. Trade is waiting to see the 10% decline in market ready hog supply which analysts are expecting from PEDv. Pork cutout values are up .96 at 114.19.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn    -4 1/4
  • Jul Beans   + 1/2
  • Jul Wheat   -7
  • Jun Cattle  Steady
  • Jun Hogs    Steady
  • Jun Dlr     -.07
  • Jun S&P     -7.50
  • Jun Crude   +.63
  • Jun Gold    +7.40

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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