Sep 22, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Traders Prepare For Post-Holiday Fireworks!

Jul 03, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 3, 2014 at 5:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are higher on bargain hunting and short covering ahead of long weekend.

Grain markets close at 12:00 today and will reopen at 8:30 am CDT Monday morning. Livestock markets close at 12:15 today and reopen at 9:05 on Monday.

Weekly Export sales to be released at 7:30 am:

(Reuters) Trade estimates for     Trade estimates for

                                  2013-14                       2014-15:

Wheat                           0                   300,000-450,000

Corn               200,000-350,000         300,000-450,000

Soybeans                 0-150,000         300,000-500,000

Soymeal                   0-100,000                     0-150,000

Soyoil                       0-20,000                       0-10,000

What will the long weekend hold for us come Monday? There have been years where the first trading day after July 4 is when the fireworks explode at CBOT due to the weather forecast. Currently the weather appears to be ideal for corn and soybean growth.

Grain traders will likely be watching events unfold on the global stage where the Iraq and Ukraine situations are worsening. Russia is preparing troops along the border to defend the Russian people in Ukraine.

Ethanol production remains strong at 953,000 barrels per day which is the second highest weekly rate of this marketing year. Processing margins have slipped but they are still positive. USDA is projecting 5.050 billion bushels of corn for ethanol which is 8.6% higher than last year. Currently the pace is 9.9% over last year and the crop year ends August 31.

The CGT labor organization announced that the port workers in Rosario will go on an indefinite strike starting Friday.

Wheat held January low which is long term technical support and closes higher on Wednesday. Is this the beginning of a retracement rally?

Next week crop conditions on Monday afternoon will be watched for a drop in G/E due to heavy rains. Friday the USDA will release the July Supply and Demand report with likely adjustments for acres, quarterly stocks, exports, corn for ethanol usage and don’t forget about the feed/residual category. Should be an interesting report.

Economic Calendar today: Unemployment report expected to illustrate ongoing spring labor market improvement. Unemployment claims expected to remain favorable.

High meat prices have not stopped restaurant demand. National Restaurant Association released information that shows the foodservice industry is performing at levels not seen since the recession of 2008-09. Cash cattle trade higher, packer’s struggle finding cattle to fill retail demand. Beef values were mixed with choice down .47 and select up .62. CME Feeder index is 217.20.

Lean Hog futures continue their spread adjusting after last week’s USDA Hogs and Pigs Report surprises. Demand for meat is strong at the retail level. Pork cutout values are up 2.53.

Allendale wishes everyone an enjoyable and safe Independence Day Weekend.

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn   +1 1/2   
  • Jul Beans   +7
  • Jul Wheat   + 3/4
  • Aug Cattle  +2.17   
  • Jul Hogs    +.45
  • Sep Dlr     +.08
  • Sep S&P     +1.75
  • Aug Crude   -.50
  • Aug Gold   +8.80

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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