Traders Satisfied to Wait
Oct 23, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 23, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grains are lower led by a risk-off attitude by traders. Overall markets are range bound ahead of the presidential election. Fund managers have reduced positions or just moved to the side until they get a clear picture of government policy in the US. Other traders are sitting still, waiting for option expiration on Friday. The 7.50 strike in corn and the 15.00 strike in soybeans have the largest open interest. Normally the market migrates toward these levels. Soybean harvest is 80% complete compared to last week of 77%. Corn was 87% harvested versus 79% last week. The EU announced they will accept GMO corn from Brazil. Using the Informa planted acreage number from last Friday, 2013 ending stocks project to be over 2.0 billion bushels, when completing the balance sheet with trend yield for corn while adjusting usage and exports. The amazing part of these calculations is that production could be 4.4 billion greater than this year. When working through these numbers, it should heighten the awareness of price potential and profitability for 2013. Allendale brokers have strategies they are happy to share with you. Call us at 800-262-7538. Livestock futures retreated after a bullish cattle-on-feed report which is not unusual. Cold storage data was long-term positive to beef and showed large pork product in the locker. However the price outlook targets for live cattle futures should be raised as market supplies into next year. Boxed beef was higher on Monday with choice up 1.67 and select up 1.08. Pork cutout values were down .41. We are watching for a sell signal in the pork complex. We’re getting a great response for our Ag Leaders Webinar
this month which will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose. We hope you can join us. Registration
is free and open to everyone.
Markets as of 4:45 AM
Dec Corn -5 1/2
Nov Beans -12 3/4
Dec Wheat -7 1/4
Dec Cattle +.27
Dec Hogs -.10
Dec Dlr +.05
Dec S+P -10.00
Nov Crude -1.32
Dec Gold -9.30
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Lean Hogs had a short term divergence in momentum that could indicate a break in the rally. Coupled with the market’s proximity to the recent top of the market and the psychological $80.00 level, we could see lower prices in the next few days…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Argentina: The Agriculture Ministry, in its weekly report, indicated recent heavy rains had helped the wheat crop. The trade has assumed they have harmed the crop which is now entering into early harvest. The decline in production this year is cited from the 20% decline in acreage as producers shifted to corn and soybeans.
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