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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Traders Satisfied to Wait

Oct 23, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 23, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grains are lower led by a risk-off attitude by traders. Overall markets are range bound ahead of the presidential election. Fund managers have reduced positions or just moved to the side until they get a clear picture of government policy in the US. Other traders are sitting still, waiting for option expiration on Friday. The 7.50 strike in corn and the 15.00 strike in soybeans have the largest open interest. Normally the market migrates toward these levels. Soybean harvest is 80% complete compared to last week of 77%. Corn was 87% harvested versus 79% last week. The EU announced they will accept GMO corn from Brazil. Using the Informa planted acreage number from last Friday, 2013 ending stocks project to be over 2.0 billion bushels, when completing the balance sheet with trend yield for corn while adjusting usage and exports. The amazing part of these calculations is that production could be 4.4 billion greater than this year. When working through these numbers, it should heighten the awareness of price potential and profitability for 2013. Allendale brokers have strategies they are happy to share with you. Call us at 800-262-7538. Livestock futures retreated after a bullish cattle-on-feed report which is not unusual. Cold storage data was long-term positive to beef and showed large pork product in the locker. However the price outlook targets for live cattle futures should be raised as market supplies into next year. Boxed beef was higher on Monday with choice up 1.67 and select up 1.08. Pork cutout values were down .41. We are watching for a sell signal in the pork complex. We’re getting a great response for our Ag Leaders Webinar this month which will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose. We hope you can join us. Registration is free and open to everyone.
Markets as of 4:45 AM
Dec Corn    -5 1/2
Nov Beans   -12 3/4
Dec Wheat   -7 1/4
Dec Cattle +.27
Dec Hogs    -.10
Dec Dlr     +.05
Dec S+P     -10.00
Nov Crude   -1.32
Dec Gold    -9.30
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Lean Hogs had a short term divergence in momentum that could indicate a break in the rally. Coupled with the market’s proximity to the recent top of the market and the psychological $80.00 level, we could see lower prices in the next few days…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Argentina: The Agriculture Ministry, in its weekly report, indicated recent heavy rains had helped the wheat crop. The trade has assumed they have harmed the crop which is now entering into early harvest. The decline in production this year is cited from the 20% decline in acreage as producers shifted to corn and soybeans.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.


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